The constantly ticking numbers in my account always remind me of that young kid eight years ago who entered the market with 8000U—blowing up positions, going to zero, exchanges running away—I've fallen into all those pits. But what changed me wasn't luck in catching the bottom, but learning to see people's true nature through repeated lessons in the market.

Recently, this rebound has many shouting that the bull market has arrived. But looking behind the data, you'll find things are far from that simple.

**The True Picture of the Market**

As of mid-January, the total market cap of crypto assets broke through 3.3 trillion USD, with a net inflow of about 250 billion USD in a week. It sounds impressive. But the key lies in how this money is allocated—only 40% flows into Bitcoin, while the remaining 60% is spread across other coins like Ethereum, Solana, etc. This is not the same as retail investors rushing to buy the dip in a herd. Institutional allocation strategies have changed, leaning towards more detailed, structured layouts.

Sentiment also shows contradictions. The fear index has eased from extreme fear to a neutral zone, which sounds good. But volatility remains relatively low, like a spring compressed by an invisible hand, waiting for a trigger point to release.

Policy-wise, there are also changes. The US CLARITY Act is about to restart hearings; if it passes, the regulatory boundaries between SEC and CFTC could be completely reshaped. Plus, signals like Texas exploring Bitcoin reserves indicate a subtle shift in political attitudes towards crypto assets, adding a stronger safe-haven label to Bitcoin.

**The Pits I Have Fallen Into**

In my early years, I believed in the idea of riding the trend until I realized that the so-called "trend" is often a carefully laid trap. For example, a single-day massive bullish candle—appearing as a breakout signal—actually might be the main force dumping on emotional traders. This kind of play repeated many times last year: a sharp rise followed immediately by a plunge. Now I am more cautious about such surges, especially in altcoins.

True judgment comes from understanding the real intentions of market participants, not passive following.