2026-01-09 05:22:16

On Friday, Wall Street will experience an invisible showdown.

At 9:30 PM, the Non-Farm Payroll report will be released as scheduled. Analysts expect 60,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.5% — sounds pretty standard, but this is precisely the moment that tests the market the most. Slightly stronger data could be interpreted as an overheating economy, lowering expectations for Fed rate cuts; weaker data, on the other hand, could easily trigger recession fears.

The real issue is that the S&P 500's P/E ratio has already climbed to 22x, a level only seen during the peak of 2022. At this valuation level, there is almost no room for error.

But the most tense moment isn't actually the Non-Farm report, but around 10:00 AM — when the Supreme Court may rule on Trump's tariffs. According to Polymarket's prediction market data, there is only a 24% chance that tariffs will be upheld, and a 76% chance they will be overturned. If overturned, this would wipe out a potential $133 billion in revenue, and the federal budget gap would widen accordingly.

There is also another possibility. Retail giants like Walmart and Costco, along with over a thousand other companies, are calling for the tariffs to be overturned. If they win the case, that would be a real "cash in hand" positive. The dollar could fall sharply, the US Treasury yield curve could steepen, and the Fed would have a stronger reason to cut rates.

On the surface, the market seems very calm, but the VIX has quietly risen to 15.5, and implied volatility in options has reached ±0.9%. Analysts are all saying: behind this eerie calm, there are turbulent undercurrents.

Will it go up or down? The key is Friday.

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TokenToaster

· 18h ago

Oh my god, this wave on Friday is going to explode. If the tariff ruling is overturned, it'll be a total thrill.

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SchroedingerMiner

· 01-09 05:49

Once again, it's a situation of "zero room for error." Why do I feel like this play is being repeated every week... Removing 133 billion, just remove it. Anyway, as soon as the US Treasury yield curve steepens, the Fed has a reason to cut interest rates. Then it will be another round of bubbles, cycle after cycle. I'm not surprised that Walmart won the lawsuit. After all, no one's money is easy to earn. --- Friday morning is destined to be a watchful day. With the VIX at only 15.5, how can anyone say it's calm? This is the strange calm before the storm. --- With the S&P 500 at a 22x P/E ratio, tell me what room for error is left? I'm just waiting for the moment to be proven wrong. --- The probability of the tariffs being overturned is already 76%. Should I run first... --- Every time someone says "underlying currents are surging," but after Friday, everyone forgets. I bet five bucks that next week will be a new "critical moment." --- The US Treasury yield curve steepening sounds good, but I don't know if the Fed will really have the guts to cut rates at that time.

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pvt_key_collector

· 01-09 05:49

Damn, Friday is going to be deadly, with the non-farm payrolls and tariffs double whammy combo. Zero tolerance for errors, this is no joke. At a 22x PE ratio, this move is really exciting. The sneaky rise in VIX makes me a bit uneasy. Is the probability of tariffs being overturned this high? If Walmart and others win, that would be awesome, and the dollar's plunge could be an excuse for rate cuts. This calm is a bit eerie, feeling like the calm before the storm. See you on Friday for the real deal. A non-farm payroll figure of 60,000 is quite average, almost unsettling. Slight deviations could signal a crash. A 76% overturn rate, I believe it. 133 billion just gone, who will fill this federal fiscal gap? Implied volatility of options at ±0.9%, what does this hint at? It’s a tough call.

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quiet_lurker

· 01-09 05:41

Friday is going to explode, probably another roller coaster. The VIX has climbed to 15.5 and they still say it's calm, that sounds just ridiculous. --- There's a 76% chance that the tariffs will be overturned. Walmart and others are trying to make a big profit. But once the $133 billion gap is filled, it's gone. The federal ledger really needs to be properly calculated. --- PE ratio of 22, everyone. That wave in 2022 has now become a negative textbook example. Why keep pushing here? Zero tolerance for error means gambling with your mindset. --- Non-farm payrolls added 60,000 jobs. When the data is good, it's called overheating; when the data is poor, recession theories start. This game is just kicking the market around like a ball. --- Honestly, the most frightening thing about the market is this bizarre calm. When dark currents surge beneath, the reactions are often the harshest. See you on Friday.

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SatsStacking

· 01-09 05:39

Isn't it, a 22x P/E ratio and still claiming zero room for error? How fragile does that make it? --- The key still depends on the move by the Supreme Court; a 76% overturn rate is really quite frightening. --- Friday is a day for gamblers—non-farm payrolls plus tariff rulings, it's like double insurance, right? --- The Federal Reserve is desperately looking for reasons to cut interest rates, haha. --- VIX climbing to 15.5 and pretending the market is calm? I find it quite tense to watch. --- $133 billion just disappeared, who will make up for this loss? --- If Walmart really wins this round, how happy retail investors must be. --- Honestly, this "strange calm" is more frightening than a big drop; it feels like something big is brewing.

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