Ethereum's recent trend is quite interesting. From 3308 all the way down to 3052, now hovering around 3100 with oscillations, it's a typical pattern of a sharp decline followed by a pause.

Looking at the candlestick charts, the situation is fairly clear. The Bollinger Bands have already opened downward, and the price is tightly hugging the lower band, indicating short-term overselling. As for the MACD, the narrowing below the zero line is decreasing, and a golden cross is imminent, showing that the momentum for a rebound is gradually building. Two key levels to remember: 3050 below is a short-term vital support line, and a break below it is unlikely; above, the 3150 to 3180 range is the first resistance zone. As long as it holds above this, the space for upward movement will open.

On-chain data is even more interesting. Recently, the frequency of large transfers has increased, with some smart money quietly accumulating in the 3050 to 3100 range, which can be seen through on-chain monitoring. Meanwhile, the existing supply on exchanges has slightly decreased, indicating some chips have been withdrawn from trading platforms—possibly being hoarded or staked—meaning the supply pressure is easing.

From the news perspective, although there have been some fluctuations in regulation recently, the expectations for Ethereum spot ETFs are still brewing beneath the surface. Any new developments could easily trigger a surge in market sentiment. The overall macro liquidity remains unchanged, and the market still follows the pattern—when prices fall too much, someone will come in to buy, creating a tense atmosphere of speculation.

My judgment is that after a shakeout here, a technical rebound is highly likely. The target for the rebound is first seen in the 3180 to 3220 range. However, it’s important to note that a rebound does not mean a reversal. There are still many trapped positions above, and if trading volume doesn’t keep up, a rise will just be a good opportunity to reduce positions.

My current mindset is cautiously optimistic. As long as 3050 doesn’t break, I plan to gradually add small positions for the rebound, but not heavily, with strict stop-loss set below 3030. The market always requires respect, but I believe in my trading system—this rebound is indeed worth betting on.