#比特币长期发展趋势 Seeing James Wynn's latest prophecy, I have to pour some cold water. From 120,000 down to 78,000, a 35% drop, now claiming it might double to 175,000? I've heard this kind of rhetoric too many times—first, an "extreme prediction" to grab attention, then quickly narrowing it down to a "minimum 10% rebound."

This is a typical manipulation tactic by market makers: using extreme numbers to create FOMO, causing retail investors to buy at high prices, then using gentle follow-up statements to leave themselves an exit. The 50-week moving average is indeed a technical support level, but the key issue is—this is precisely the period when institutions and big players are shaking out their positions; the bottom hasn't been confirmed yet.

The pitfalls I've encountered over the years tell me that Bitcoin does have long-term value, but short-term rebound predictions are just gambling. It sounds reasonable for funds to shift from stocks and real estate into BTC, but in reality, large players often lock in their positions early, so retail investors are already buying at high levels. Instead of chasing analysts' predictions, ask yourself three questions: How much money can you afford to lose with a 50% drawdown? How long can you hold without wavering? If this money is lost, will your life get worse?

Rebound opportunities do exist, but only if you manage your risks well. Don't be fooled by promises like "at least 10%" in a lukewarm water boiling frog scenario. Living longer is the real winning strategy.