2026-01-09 05:24:30

A recent research report from a major bank has sparked quite a bit of discussion in the forex community. What is the core point? The Federal Reserve's rate cut actions this year might be more aggressive than the market currently expects.

Let's start with the factual basis. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently publicly stated that starting from April, the monthly job creation data in the US might be seriously overestimated, by about 60,000 jobs. Sounds a bit alarming, right? In other words, the actual employment growth in the US might be underreported.

The logical chain is as follows: employment data is overestimated → actual employment situation is not as good as imagined → the Fed will be more aggressive in cutting rates to stabilize growth. Plus, the current political calls for rate cuts are also quite strong, making the Fed's independence a topic of discussion. These factors together increase the probability and magnitude of rate cuts.

So, what about the US dollar? It will weaken. Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank have provided a specific forecast: by the end of 2026, the EUR/USD exchange rate will rise from the current 1.1690 to 1.24. Although the increase doesn't seem particularly large, for forex traders, this is already a clear signal.

Honestly, this has a crucial impact on global asset pricing. Once the dollar's trend confirms a weakening, not only will the forex market see big moves, but the pricing logic of other asset classes, including the crypto market, will also adjust accordingly. Future data releases from each Fed meeting are likely to be scrutinized more closely.

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RooftopReserver

· 18h ago

Is the employment data so inflated? Then the Federal Reserve really has to make a big move, the dollar is going to cool off. Wait, the euro just rose to 1.24? Feels still conservative. Another year of watching the Fed's show, is this time the big rate cut really coming? What does a weak dollar mean? The crypto world is about to take off, or else all the waiting is in vain. Falsified data by 60,000 people, anyone would panic, no wonder Powell is eager to cut rates.

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DefiOldTrickster

· 01-11 17:43

Another story about "The Federal Reserve will sharply cut interest rates"? Bro, I heard this story back in 2015, and what happened? They shrank their balance sheet for four years. But on the other hand, the logic behind the dollar being weak this time is indeed interesting—if the euro reaches 1.24, the arbitrage space for stablecoins... needs to be calculated to find the liquidation price.

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ProxyCollector

· 01-11 11:09

Employment data overestimated by 60,000 people, that's a bit harsh. Will the Federal Reserve really cut rates aggressively? The dollar weakens, and only then can cryptocurrencies take off. Let's wait and see the subsequent moves. Powell's recent actions are quite interesting; the rate cut expectations are heating up again. Mitsubishi UFJ's forecast still seems conservative; the dollar has more room to depreciate. Political pressure combined with inflated data means the Fed really has to take action now. Euro to 1.24? At this pace, the crypto market might hype up a liquidity story. Inflated employment data—markets will react sooner or later. Those who position early will benefit. The Fed's independence being criticized indicates that rate cuts are already the trend.

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BankruptWorker

· 01-09 05:54

Here comes the hype about interest rate cuts again. If employment data adds 60,000 more jobs, will there be a massive liquidity injection? Then inflation will explode again. A weak dollar is indeed good for our long positions in crypto, but this forecast until 2026 seems a bit too optimistic. Does the Federal Reserve really dare to cut interest rates aggressively? It feels like political pressure and economic realities are completely out of sync. Euro 1.24, right? Remember this number and see if their predictions are accurate. If the dollar really weakens this time, BTC will go crazy.

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GasFeeTherapist

· 01-09 05:54

Here we go again, adding 60,000 to employment data? Now the Federal Reserve must be in a rush to loosen monetary policy. --- Is the signal that the dollar is about to collapse so obvious? Let's wait and see if the euro hits 1.24. --- Indeed, with the rate cut cycle coming, cryptocurrencies are set to turn around. The Fed's move is actually beneficial for us. --- Is Powell just looking for an excuse to cut rates? Political pressure + data manipulation—the dollar is really hanging by a thread. --- 2026? I just want to make money next year. That prediction is way too far ahead... --- A weakening dollar = liquidity flood = crypto taking off. Logical loop, isn't it? --- The fact that employment data is being concealed feels a bit suspicious. Doubt about its authenticity. --- Mitsubishi UFJ's forecasts are always unreliable... but this time, the Fed really has to loosen policy.

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BrokeBeans

· 01-09 05:50

They're at it again, cutting interest rates, cutting interest rates, but in the end, the dollar remains strong.

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FUD_Whisperer

· 01-09 05:38

Are employment data overstated by 60,000? That's just an excuse. The Federal Reserve has wanted to cut interest rates for a long time. --- Euro 1.24? Come on, I've heard the story of the dollar collapse too many times. --- Federal Reserve independence? Ha, with such political pressure, who can remain independent? --- The crypto market adjusts with the dollar's movements. When the time comes, it will just be a mess. --- If interest rate cuts are this aggressive, what are we waiting for to start buying the dip? --- 60,000? Can we trust this data? It feels like it’s just paving the way for a big rate cut. --- A weaker dollar is actually good for BTC, but only if it really weakens. --- 2026 only at 1.24? That still seems too conservative. The next two years are too unpredictable. --- Another bank research report. Are these analysts' predictions more accurate than others? --- The Federal Reserve being hijacked by politics—that's the most heartbreaking part.

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ShibaSunglasses

· 01-09 05:29

The Federal Reserve is about to loosen monetary policy again, and the dollar is destined to fall.

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