2026-01-09 05:24:41

Mitsubishi UFJ Bank's latest analysis report has poured cold water on the outlook for the US dollar. Their conclusion is straightforward: the dollar is likely to decline further this year, with the reason pointing to the Federal Reserve's rate cut intensity—probably exceeding current market expectations.

This judgment is not made lightly. Look at what Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said: since April, the number of new jobs added in the US each month has been overstated by about 60,000. In other words, the actual employment growth in the US has been declining for some time, but the market has been misled by the data.

Analysts further pointed out that the logic behind this is clear—current currency markets remain tense, and in such an environment, the market tends to overestimate the economic situation, mistaking bad signals for good ones. Once the Federal Reserve realizes the true state of the employment market, the space and intensity for rate cuts will far exceed current market pricing. This is clearly not a positive sign for the US dollar exchange rate.

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ser_we_are_early

· 4h ago

The US dollar is about to take a hit again, I saw it coming long ago --- Employment data is all fake, the market is being played badly --- Powell: I'll just watch and see what you guess --- Rate cuts are coming, is the dollar ready to plunge --- This logic makes sense, bad news packaged as good news, a typical leek-cutting tactic --- The Federal Reserve is still pretending, employment has been bad for a long time --- Let's wait and see how far the dollar can fall --- Currency tightening is still currency tightening, anyway the dollar can't run away --- Wake up everyone, the data is all lying to you --- Is the room for rate cuts far beyond expectations? Then doesn't that mean the dollar is about to collapse

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HashBrownies

· 21h ago

Is the US dollar about to plummet again? Turns out we've been lied to by employment data all along. Employment figures underreported by 60,000... How outrageous is that? No wonder it didn't feel like the economy was doing that well. With such a large room for rate cuts, shorting the dollar is indeed worth considering. Powell's words are basically hinting at a significant rate cut, right? The market reaction is always a bit slow, and this time we might get proven wrong again. Has the dollar bear market truly arrived? Time to prepare to buy the dip in other currencies. So should we now go all-in on shorting the US dollar or wait and see? Mitsubishi UFJ's logic makes sense to me; there's definitely too much water in the data.

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MemecoinTrader

· 01-10 05:59

wait so they're saying the jobs data was cooked this whole time? ngl the real alpha here is watching when fed actually catches up to reality... dollar getting absolutely rekt incoming fr fr

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ProxyCollector

· 01-09 05:54

Another prediction of a new round of retail investors getting chopped, I don't think so. A dollar crash isn't just a matter of this year or the next two years; if it really drops, we'll have to wait. The issue of fake employment data has been pointed out long ago. Are we only talking about it now? Speculations about interest rate cuts keep fluctuating, but ultimately it still depends on the Federal Reserve's actual actions. Mitsubishi's comments are politely called analysis, but frankly, they are trying to create panic to trap traders. Let's wait and see—are predictions from these kinds of institutions accurate?

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DancingCandles

· 01-09 05:53

Employment data is inflated; the dollar probably has to fall. It seems this time I really need to reduce my positions.

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SnapshotStriker

· 01-09 05:51

Is the US dollar finally falling? Employment data are all fake; we should have seen through it long ago. Another rate cut is coming; this wave of the dollar really can't hold up. Powell has been signaling this for a while; we're still being deceived. Once the Federal Reserve recognizes the situation, they'll have to cut rates significantly. The dollar is doomed. The data is all manipulated; why are there still people buying the dip on the dollar... The market's reaction speed is really slow; it's always a case of hindsight. The rate cut cycle is here; it's time to reduce holdings of US dollars.

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SnapshotLaborer

· 01-09 05:51

Damn, the fact that employment data was overstated by 60,000 is really unbelievable. No wonder the dollar is falling. Wait, does this mean the Federal Reserve is slow to react? They only realized after a bunch of fake data? Powell needs to catch up on some lessons. If interest rate cuts exceed expectations, the dollar will definitely have to admit defeat. At that point, I'll be rushing to buy gold at the bottom. Is the market really this easy to deceive? I feel like I'm being fooled too... Federal Reserve: We have uncovered the truth, but it's too late.

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MetaverseLandlord

· 01-09 05:46

Is the US dollar about to be hammered again? Are the Japanese people’s words reliable this time... Even Powell admits that the data has been inflated; a rate cut is not a joke.

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