Ethereum 1-hour chart breaks downwards, and the rebound is just an opportunity for bears to set up. I'll directly state the core logical framework:

**Technical analysis is already very clear**
The moving averages are arranged in a waterfall pattern—MA5 firmly presses down on MA10, and as long as the rebound doesn't break 3100, it's just bluffing. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with the price sliding along the lower band, which is typical of a main downtrend wave. The key detail is in MACD: a false golden cross appears below the zero line, with the green bars shrinking but DIF and DEA still diverging. Every rebound is actually just a chance for existing funds to escape.

**On-chain signals are even more critical**
Net inflows on exchanges have been increasing for three consecutive days, with whales transferring Ethereum to certain major exchanges. The contract long-short ratio remains high and unchanged, indicating no signs of panic or long liquidation—meaning the downward ammunition is still plentiful.

**Fundamental news is not supportive**
The US regulators have delayed the final decision on the Ethereum ETF until May, and this gloom cannot be cleared in the short term. The Federal Reserve's expectation of "long-term high interest rates" remains firm, continuing to suppress risk assets. Plus, Vitalik hasn't released any technical positive news recently, and the ecosystem narrative is currently somewhat lacking in momentum.

**My trading approach**
Short at the 3080-3100 zone on rebounds, with a stop-loss above the previous high at 3150. The first target is around 2980 (a previous support level), and the second target looks toward 2850 (a weekly support level).

Absolutely do not try to catch the bottom. If you're a right-side trader, wait: only when the daily closes above 3200 and on-chain net outflows reverse is it a signal to enter.

In plain terms—trend is your friend. Going against the trend is gambling. The market has already sent resonant signals from technical, on-chain, and news perspectives. Ignoring them is just wasting every USDT in your account.