Tonight's market is indeed a bit tough. BTC's recent movement can be described as "thrilling," especially with the repeated attempts around the 90,000 level. Honestly, whether this level can hold directly determines the subsequent market rhythm.

The core judgment is clear: the key test for BTC right now is whether it can break through that yellow trend line. This line is essentially the lifeline for the bulls. If the breakout fails, any rebound will seem weak and powerless, and moving upward will be extremely difficult.

From the Fibonacci retracement structure, the previously precise target at 1:1 has been reached. The first wave of adjustment pressure has been released, but this does not mean safety. On the contrary, we are now entering a more critical phase of the game.

The real issue is not "can it rise," but "can it hold above 90,000."

If BTC re-establishes above 90,000 and maintains consolidation, bulls will have a chance to breathe, and a corrective rebound is likely to follow. But if the situation reverses—breaking below 90,000 and failing to recover—then the scene will depend on the Fibonacci 1.618 support level.

A special note here: even if it just touches 1.618 without truly breaking below, the bullish trend will essentially be over. Because once lower lows appear, the nature of the trend will change completely. V-shaped reversals, etc., are unlikely in the current environment of sluggish volume. Rebounding from 1.618 back to the high of 94,760 is indeed very challenging.