The 2025 Bitcoin bull market has a clear characteristic—institutions are taking the lead. The market hit a historic high of $120,000 twice during the year but fell back nearly 30% by the end of the year. What does this volatility indicate? The era of retail speculation is over; now it’s the institutions’ world.

Following this logic, in 2026, the Bitcoin market will exhibit four new patterns that will fundamentally change the previous cycle of rapid surges and crashes.

**Liquidity is the strongest driving force**

Looking back at 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times, and ETF fund inflows totaled over $34 billion throughout the year. These two factors together pushed Bitcoin higher. Conversely, as liquidity tightened at year-end and ETF funds started to flow out, the bull market directly corrected. What does this tell us? The halving cycle theory is becoming less effective; liquidity is the real market mover.

The expectation for 2026 is that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates, with about 150 basis points of room remaining. Currently, global sovereign funds and pension funds allocate less than 3% to crypto assets. If this rises to 5%-10%, the resulting super liquidity dividend will be enormous. When these institutional funds flow in, Bitcoin will enter a relatively stable "slow bull" phase.

**Decreasing volatility, consolidation and upward movement becoming the new normal**

In 2025, Bitcoin’s volatility decreased by 40% compared to 2021. This is no coincidence—institutions’ continuous ETF purchases stabilized the market.

This trend will continue into 2026. Prices may repeatedly fluctuate within the $80,000-$100,000 range, but the crazy scenarios of doubling in a month or halving in a short period will not occur. A more realistic expectation is gradual quarterly increases, with pullbacks kept rational—usually within a healthy 15%-25% range, rather than the panic-driven 40%+ drops seen in the past. Investors will need to adapt to this "low volatility" new rhythm.