What is needed for Bitcoin to reach $100,000? Analyzing the current situation suggested by on-chain data

Bitcoin is currently trading around $90,520 and is approaching a critical turning point in early 2026. On the surface, price movement appears stagnant, but CryptoQuant’s analytical indicators are signaling different internal market dynamics. From the perspectives of supply side, investor sentiment, and liquidity, what emerges is not simply a decline but rather the possibility that the market is undergoing a rebuilding process.

Shift to Accumulation Phase: Changing Behavior of Long-Term Holders

Over the past few months, the supply from long-term holders (LTH) has been consistently negative. However, recent signs indicate a potential shift. The 30-day net change turning positive by 10,700 BTC suggests that large holders are no longer selling their coins, and supply is moving toward more solid hands.

This pattern is typical immediately after a market bottom. It indicates a reduction in selling pressure and a gradual move toward equilibrium in supply and demand. Notably, this change is gradual and not a rapid reversal, strongly suggesting a transition from a correction phase to a range-bound market.

Evaluation of Long-Term Holders’ Positions: Not Loss Selling but Profit Taking

The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator helps understand what influences long-term holders’ selling decisions. Currently, the LTH SOPR hovering around 1.0 indicates a neutral level, meaning there is no widespread panic selling or emotional capitulation.

Instead, holders seem to be carefully adjusting their positions, balancing profits and losses. Historical chart analysis shows that such a state of equilibrium often coincides with a market that has finished its correction and is preparing for the next upward phase, rather than a severe decline.

Fund Outflows from Exchanges and the Reconfiguration of Liquidity

From a liquidity perspective, outflows from exchanges continue to outpace inflows of Bitcoin. This net outflow reduces immediate selling pressure in the spot market.

However, the limited price rebound also cannot be ignored. It suggests that demand remains cautious. Uncertainty in U.S. economic policy likely suppresses buying appetite, and low liquidity makes price formation difficult. While moving assets off exchanges reflects long-term holding intentions, it alone does not provide enough momentum for a price increase.

Scenario of $100,000: Rising Without Catalysts Is Difficult

When considering a recovery of Bitcoin to $100,000, the current technical environment indicates that new external factors are essential. The easing of supply pressure is a positive signal, but there is a lack of clear demand-side stimulation.

The current assessment is that the market is in a transitional phase, moving away from panic selling and building a more stable foundation. Rather than expecting a rapid surge in January, it is more realistic to see ongoing efforts to establish a solid base toward the second half of 2026. If macroeconomic conditions improve or new buying catalysts emerge, significant movement could then be anticipated.