Is XRP ETF demand strong but the price keeps falling? On-chain data reveals the truth

XRP Spot ETF Asset Size Has Surpassed $1.14 Billion, Continuing to Record Net Inflows Since Launch, with No Single-Day Net Outflows. According to normal market logic, such sustained capital inflows of this magnitude should stabilize the price or even trigger a rebound. However, the reality is quite the opposite—XRP is creating lower highs and lower lows, and the latest on-chain data explains this paradox.

Supply Pressure Continues to Suppress Price Rebound

CryptoQuant’s analysis indicates that large inflows of XRP to certain exchanges mainly come from addresses holding between 100K-1M and over 1M tokens. This is not retail behavior but whales and high-net-worth institutions preparing for potential liquidity releases.

It is noteworthy that these large holders’ on-chain activities show a clear correlation with price movements:

• Whenever large addresses see surges in inflows, XRP forms lower highs
• Followed by even lower lows
• This pattern repeats, exposing a core market issue: large supply sources continuously suppress the price

Rather than a single aggressive dump, it is more like steady supply leakage that the market cannot absorb. In the absence of new spot buy orders, the market struggles to digest these outflows.

ETF Popularity and Actual Price Divergence

The performance data of the spot ETF is almost perfect: total assets have exceeded $1.14 billion, daily inflows are stable, and no anomalies are observed even during market corrections. But this “beautiful” inflow data cannot prevent the price from declining—what is hidden behind this?

The most plausible explanation follows this logical chain: large holders had already accumulated before the ETF approval, expecting the approval event to trigger retail FOMO. When this event actually occurs, they start selling this “story-driven” demand to scattered buyers. This creates a persistent supply burden, and ETF institutional buying cannot fully offset it.

Every attempt by XRP to retake the $1.95 level is ruthlessly suppressed by new large inflows from exchanges, forming a classic “buy high, sell low” cycle.

Support Levels and Risk Warnings

Based on on-chain inflow intensity and price structure, key observation points are as follows:

• $1.82-$1.87 zone → First support level
• $1.50-$1.66 zone → If inflows persist, deeper support test

XRP briefly stabilized near $1.82 in early December, but subsequent waves of large inflows pushed the price to new lows again. Unless on-chain data shows a significant decline in large inflows, the probability of sustained rebound remains limited.

It is worth noting that XRP has now recovered to $2.10, showing a clear improvement from previous support levels. However, considering the concentration of coin holdings (Top 100 addresses hold 67.67%), the market still needs more dispersed new participants to break the dominant supply cycle of large holders.

Institutional Demand Is Real, but the Market Needs a Shift

The continuous net inflows into XRP ETF indeed demonstrate genuine institutional interest, and zero outflows indicate funds are not withdrawing. But relying solely on ETF demand cannot reverse a market where large holders are continuously increasing supply.

Breaking through the current dilemma requires:

• Significant reduction in large exchange inflows
• On-chain address data shifting from distribution to accumulation
• New spot buy orders creating stronger support

Until these conditions are met, despite the impressive ETF performance, XRP still faces downside risks.

Summary

ETF capital continues to flow in, but persistent supply from large holders remains the main obstacle to price appreciation. To achieve a sustainable rebound, more than just institutional demand signals are needed; a substantial on-chain outflow shift is essential.