Tonight, all eyes in the market are on the United States' first non-farm payrolls report for 2026, which could directly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace this year. The market generally expects an increase of 60,000 jobs, compared to the last reported figure of 64,000. It may seem like just a numerical fluctuation, but in reality, it affects the nerves of the entire market.

BTC is currently fluctuating around $95,000, and this stalemate has almost worn out the market's patience. The technical outlook is quite delicate—both the upside and downside contain traps.

Looking upward, if the non-farm data is positive (also weakening the dollar), and BTC breaks through $92,000, the $115 million in open short positions above will face a collective liquidation. Such rapid surges often push the price directly toward the historical resistance level of $95,000. On the downside, if unexpectedly strong data triggers a dollar rebound and BTC falls below $89,000, the $944 million in long positions below will be liquidated one after another like dominoes, potentially leading to a loss of control.

From an operational perspective, the fact that three attempts to reach $95,000 have failed indicates that the resistance above is indeed heavy, and institutional capital inflow is clearly slowing down. Before stabilizing above $92,000, chasing the high is essentially gambling. The most prudent approach now is to focus on defending the key range of $92,000 to $104,000. If there is an unexpected close below $87,000 tonight, the early 2026 mini-bull market expectations will need to be reconsidered.