The first US non-farm employment data for 2026 will be released tonight, with market expectations of a 60,000 increase, compared to the previous 64,000, which has slightly declined. Although this data may seem dull, it directly influences the Federal Reserve's subsequent interest rate cut pace, the US dollar exchange rate fluctuations, and consequently impacts Bitcoin's short-term market trend.

Currently, BTC is oscillating around 90,500, with investor sentiment clearly cautious. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has failed to stabilize after three attempts to break 95,000, with a low of 89,300, indicating persistent selling pressure above. If it can break through the 92,000 level, it will trigger a liquidation of $1.15 billion in short positions, potentially sparking a short-term rebound; conversely, if it falls below 89,000, the $944 million long positions face danger, and the 87,000 level becomes a point for reassessment.

Community interest has cooled, and institutional inflows are also slowing down, indicating the market is in a wait-and-see phase. In the short term, swing traders should focus on the 92k to 104k range but need to beware of chain reactions if it drops below 87k. A dual consideration of macro data and technical analysis is necessary to seize opportunities amid this wave of volatility.