The intense volatility over the past two hours caught many off guard. Billions of dollars were liquidated, and the market looked bleak. The recent calls to push towards 120k have quieted down, and now everyone is watching the 90k level.

But upon closer inspection, this is not a black swan event at all. Over the past 10 days, BTC has been oscillating between 86k and 90k, like doing a "military drill," stuck in a range. Especially today’s sharp decline, leveraged traders were directly "forced out," and the comment section is full of people cutting losses.

I’ve seen scenes like this many times. In my 8 years of observing the crypto market, I’ve noticed a clear pattern: BTC’s volatility is never random. It repeats a closed loop of "sharp decline to bottom - demand zone stabilization - consolidation and recovery." The flash crash to 40k in September 2021 and the 19 billion dollar liquidation in October this year are just different versions of the same story.

The key point is, BTC is currently in an "observation window" after the "sharp decline to bottom." Don’t just focus on the current ups and downs; what truly determines the next move is the core demand zone between 76k and 80k. This is the "lifeline" we should pay close attention to. As long as this line holds steady, the probability of a rebound is much higher.