Two major events hitting the market simultaneously—things are getting serious. The US dollar index has skyrocketed to new highs across the board—what exactly is happening behind the scenes?
Let's start with the first shock: the December US non-farm payroll data will be released soon. This report is regarded by the industry as a "weather vane for federal policy in 2026." The extent to which the data deviates from expectations will determine the intensity of reactions in the forex, bond, and crypto markets.
Even more impactful is the second variable—the US Supreme Court is facing a historic ruling. Trump previously invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose large-scale tariffs. Is this move constitutional? This ruling will essentially set the rules for future presidential trade powers. Once the decision is announced, the global trade landscape will be reshaped.
Here's the situation: on one side, the future direction of monetary policy (affecting liquidity); on the other, the upper limit of trade policy (affecting economic expectations). Both major variables are coming into play simultaneously, leaving institutional investors confused. When certainty is lacking, where does the capital flow? To the oldest safe haven—the US dollar. The result is clear: the dollar index is shooting up like a rocket.
In simple terms: data determines the direction, rulings determine the rules. Once both events unfold, the entire market’s logical framework will be redefined. Volatility is coming—be prepared.
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Two major events hitting the market simultaneously—things are getting serious. The US dollar index has skyrocketed to new highs across the board—what exactly is happening behind the scenes?
Let's start with the first shock: the December US non-farm payroll data will be released soon. This report is regarded by the industry as a "weather vane for federal policy in 2026." The extent to which the data deviates from expectations will determine the intensity of reactions in the forex, bond, and crypto markets.
Even more impactful is the second variable—the US Supreme Court is facing a historic ruling. Trump previously invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose large-scale tariffs. Is this move constitutional? This ruling will essentially set the rules for future presidential trade powers. Once the decision is announced, the global trade landscape will be reshaped.
Here's the situation: on one side, the future direction of monetary policy (affecting liquidity); on the other, the upper limit of trade policy (affecting economic expectations). Both major variables are coming into play simultaneously, leaving institutional investors confused. When certainty is lacking, where does the capital flow? To the oldest safe haven—the US dollar. The result is clear: the dollar index is shooting up like a rocket.
In simple terms: data determines the direction, rulings determine the rules. Once both events unfold, the entire market’s logical framework will be redefined. Volatility is coming—be prepared.