ETH these days has been stuck around 3110 with no significant movement, looking like consolidation, but in fact, there are dark currents surging beneath. I’ve been watching the market all morning until my eyes are sore— the most dangerous thing about this market is the surface "calm."

From a rebound at 3052 back to 3110, a group of people start cheering: "Bottom confirmed, 3300 is no problem!" I take a closer look at this K-line pattern, and the problem is much bigger.

Unfolding the 1-hour chart to see the details, from the drop at 3308, this segment is a clear graded downtrend. The rebound peaks are getting lower—3308, 3250, and now even 3120 can’t be maintained. This indicates that the bullish momentum has severely weakened, and each rebound lacks subsequent driving force.

Still hoping that 3110 is the bottom? Wake up. The main players’ trick of "time for space" is just to make you feel safe, prompting you to add positions, only for the last wave to push you out directly. Looking at the volume makes it clear: there’s no volume support during the rebound, and this volume-dry rebound at such heights is just a sign of exhaustion.

My trading approach is very straightforward:

Until breaking above 3160, any rise is just a bait before the next decline.

The opportunity for short positions is in the 3125 to 3135 range; try a light position first and see how the main players react. If it gets hammered down near 3155, add to the position directly. This kind of easy meat, there’s no reason not to eat it.

The stop-loss is definitely at 3188; once broken, admit defeat and exit—no room for negotiation.

The downward target is very clear: first stop at 3060, to directly eat the false strength of this rebound; second stop at 2980, which is the last psychological defense line. If it breaks this level, the chain reaction will be significant.

The key to market movement isn’t how high it can bounce during sideways consolidation, but whether you’ve already set up your positions before the real decline arrives. Whether this current K-line pattern is heading towards a breakout at 3200 or plunging rapidly to 2900, we’ll see in the next two weeks.