2026-01-09 12:30:52

Spot gold has recently fallen into an interesting symmetrical triangle pattern, with the market maintaining narrow fluctuations ahead of the non-farm payroll data release. The price repeatedly pulls between the upper boundary at 4484 and the lower trendline. Currently quoted at 4471.68, it remains suppressed by the triangle's upper boundary. The apex of this triangle is very close, indicating that after the non-farm data is released, a directional breakout is likely to occur, with 4484 becoming the key level separating bullish and bearish trends.

From a technical perspective, the 4484 level is indeed a tough nut to crack. Gold prices have tested this level twice today and been pushed back, clearly feeling the pressure of profit-taking. Meanwhile, the 4475 level, serving as the dividing line between bulls and bears, coincides with the triangle's upper trendline, making it an important resistance during rebounds.

On the lower side, the support is gradually rising, from an early session low of 4452.94 to around 4460. The intraday bottom did not break below the previously expected lower limit of 4440, indicating that there is still buying interest on dips before the non-farm payroll release. As the pattern converges, the volatility range continues to narrow, signaling that the market is waiting for that moment.

Why so cautious? It’s mainly due to the uncertainty surrounding the non-farm data. Although market expectations for December's new employment numbers and unemployment rate are not significantly divergent, funds tend to stay cautious before a breakout. Additionally, the US stock market has been slightly rising recently, and the dollar index hovers around 98.9, further limiting gold's unilateral volatility.

The strategy during this waiting period is straightforward—trade within the triangle before a breakout occurs. Consider shorting lightly in the 4470-4475 zone with a stop loss at 4485, targeting 4460-4450. Conversely, go long at 4445-4440 with a stop loss at 4435, aiming for 4470-4475.

What if a breakout happens? If it breaks above 4484, go long with a stop at 4475, targeting an upward space toward 4500-4510. If it breaks below 4450, go short with a stop at 4460, aiming for support levels around 4430-4400.

The market can move very quickly on non-farm night, so be sure to set stops carefully. Wait for confirmation of a breakout before acting to avoid being caught by false signals.

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JustAnotherWallet

· 01-09 21:43

It's the same old routine before non-farm payrolls; waiting for the triangle convergence to break. --- This 4484 level is indeed tough, but it feels like a breakout is just around the corner. --- Funds are all dozing off waiting for data, really boring. --- High sell and low buy works in a volatile range, but I'm worried about a false breakout catching me off guard. --- The dollar stays still, so gold has to hold back; there's nothing we can do. --- I wouldn't dare sleep on non-farm night; my finger stays on the stop-loss. --- As long as the 4450 line holds, there's still hope; if it breaks, it's all downhill. --- The triangle apex is approaching; tonight, either a big rally or a big drop—no in-between. --- Looks like the analysis is pretty good; just not sure which side it will break, this is gambling. --- Just as I previously judged, 4484 is indeed a tough level; being cautious is not wrong.

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SchrodingerWallet

· 01-09 12:58

4484 this hurdle is really tough to crack. Both times trying to push to the top were pushed down, it feels like the funds are waiting for the non-farm payrolls to make a big move. --- Honestly, holding cash and waiting is the wisest move now. Instead of messing around, it's better to wait until the breakout signals are clear before entering. --- The night before the non-farm payrolls is always like this. The market shrinks into a ball, no one wants to be caught by a false breakout and get chopped up. Let's just watch patiently. --- Playing the game of selling high and buying low is no fun. I want to see how a real directional breakout will turn out. It feels like it won't be long before it happens. --- The US stock market is still floating around, the dollar hasn't moved much, and gold is just stuck there. It's a pretty helpless situation. --- Stop-loss must be taken seriously. On the night of the non-farm payrolls, quick reactions mean profits, slow responses easily get cut. I don't believe there are no false breakouts. --- If the key support at 4440 breaks, then we’ll be looking at 4400. There’s still quite a bit of room below, but the buying support on dips is quite strong. --- When the triangle converges at the apex, something's bound to happen. The rhythm of this wave of market moves is so well-timed. Let’s see who can successfully catch the bottom. --- Try shorting lightly at 4470 to test the waters. Anyway, the stop-loss is right at the mouth, so no fear of losing just a small fee.

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POAPlectionist

· 01-09 12:57

It's a triangle pattern again, and it's also non-farm... Is the market really this timid? --- The 4484 level feels like it needs to be tested multiple times before breaking. --- Basically, it's just betting on non-farm, who knows how it will run. --- Moving the lower boundary upward is a good detail, indicating there is still support. --- Listening to "buy low, sell high" sounds simple, but actually doing it is much harder. --- The non-farm night market moves quickly, really. Have you set your stop-loss? --- The idea of chasing after a breakout is, I feel, something 99% of people will get trapped by. --- Gold has been like this recently, narrow-range fluctuations are so annoying. --- Shorting at 4470-4475? You must have a very strong mindset to dare. --- Let's wait and see. Anyway, it's always like this before non-farm.

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BlockchainGriller

· 01-09 12:54

Another day trapped by non-farm payrolls, the 4484 level is really tough --- Honestly, I'm tired of this choppy market, waiting for a breakout has become frustrating --- It feels like the funds are all pretending to be dead, just waiting for that gunshot --- Trying to buy low and sell high in a volatile market can easily lead to being proven wrong; I prefer to wait for confirmation --- 4484 has really become a psychological barrier; it has bounced back twice, which is quite ironic --- Non-farm payrolls night will go crazy, there's no avoiding it; it all depends on who can hold on until the end --- The lower boundary moving up indicates there is support, but I really don't dare to bet heavily; it's too risky

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ContractExplorer

· 01-09 12:42

The triangle is converging quickly, and the recent volatility before the non-farm payrolls is indeed tough. Once this data is released, it might cause a surge; the 4484 level must be defended. Listening to "sell high, buy low" sounds simple, but when the market hits, it's not easy to stay calm. The early dip didn't break below 4440, which at least shows that some people are still buying the dip, so it's not that pessimistic. Stop-losses must be set properly; don't wait for a false breakout to wipe out your account. I've learned my lesson. That night when the level was broken, I definitely kept my eyes glued to the screen. When chasing orders, be steady and patient, not rushed.

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