2026-01-09 12:33:34

Last night's market movement saw Bitcoin surge to $89,200 before plunging back, then rebounding above $91,000. Behind this intense volatility is massive capital aggressively positioning itself on the eve of the non-farm payroll data release.

Traders who have experienced multiple non-farm market cycles understand that today's data is not just a catalyst; it determines the overall trend of the bulls and bears for the coming months.

**The rate cut expectation is already "clear"**

US Treasury officials and Federal Reserve executives have been repeatedly touting a 150 basis point rate cut by 2026. The market initially went into a frenzy, but the question is—is this really good news for the markets?

Looking at history: in 2019, Bitcoin rose 25% before the Fed cut rates, but after the actual rate cut, it fell 30%. In December last year, when the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, Bitcoin plummeted by 2.8%. What's the pattern? It's "buy the rumor, sell the fact," a trick Wall Street has perfected.

Currently, the market's probability of a rate cut has soared to 92.2%, practically on the table. If today's non-farm payroll data turns out to be mediocre—for example, employment numbers fall unexpectedly—expectations could collapse outright, even triggering a sell-off.

**On-chain signals don't lie**

Prices fluctuate daily, but smart money movements can't be hidden. This week, Bitcoin whales (addresses holding over 1,000 coins) have increased their holdings by 21,000 coins, hitting a new monthly high. Meanwhile, Bitcoin balances on exchanges have dropped to a five-year low—clearly indicating that big players are accumulating, not selling.

Stablecoin market cap has also increased by 3%, as off-exchange capital is building up, waiting for the right moment to buy the dip.

Overall, whales are clearly betting on one outcome: if the non-farm data underperforms expectations, the Fed will be forced to accelerate rate cuts. Whether this scenario unfolds tonight remains to be seen.

BTC1%

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RektDetective

· 01-11 16:39

Buy the rumor, sell the fact. I've seen this trick a hundred times. Wall Street makes money off this. --- Whales increased holdings by 21,000 coins, and exchange balances hit a 5-year low... Is this time really different? --- If non-farm payrolls surprise to the downside, the 92.2% expectation will collapse immediately. Who will step in to buy then? --- Basically, it's a bet on the Federal Reserve's face. If the data looks bad, rate cuts are inevitable. --- More and more people are hoarding coins. Do I even need to say more about this signal? Even exchanges are clearing out their holdings. --- Another "see the results tonight," I bet five bucks, but it ends up being a reverse move again. --- The on-chain signals are so obvious. Aren't they just telling us that big players are waiting for negative news to buy the dip?

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Tokenomics911

· 01-11 10:24

It's the same old "buy the rumor, sell the fact." What does Wall Street think of us? They really know how to play psychological games.

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HalfIsEmpty

· 01-09 13:03

Buy the rumor, sell the fact. This move is truly brilliant, Wall Street keeps getting it right every time. --- 92.2% of the expectations are already priced in. Now it depends on whether the non-farm payrolls dare to surprise us with a cold splash. --- Whales are accumulating, exchange balances are hitting new lows. The actions of smart money are indeed hard to hide. --- Is a rate cut really a positive? History has already given the answer. Are we about to get caught again? --- Tonight's non-farm payrolls will determine how the next few months play out. It feels like there will be big turbulence. --- Stablecoins are also rising. Large investors are waiting for a bottom-fishing opportunity. This game is not simple. --- 2,100 whales have increased their holdings. Can this signal be any more obvious? Just betting on a non-farm surprise. --- "Buy the rumor, sell the fact." I keep getting cut like this every time, I almost have it memorized. --- The exchange balance is at its lowest in five years. Either a big rally is coming, or it's just silence before a major dump. --- Non-farm payroll data is the timed bomb tonight. Ninety percent of the price has already been priced in. Contrarian strategies are the way to profit.

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Ramen_Until_Rich

· 01-09 12:58

Buy the rumor, sell the fact—that's the trick, and I get caught every time. --- Whales are accumulating, exchange balances are hitting new lows. If the non-farm payrolls surprise to the downside, it will be a good show. --- 92.2% of rate cut expectations are already on the table. Entering now is no different from gambling. --- On-chain signals are the most honest. Whales have increased their holdings by 21,000 BTC, clearly waiting for a counter-move opportunity. --- The phrase "Buy the rumor, sell the fact" really hits hard—Wall Street always beats me up every time. --- Tonight's non-farm payrolls report will reveal all—either a surge or a plunge, no middle ground. --- Stablecoins are up 3%. Big players are sharpening their swords, just waiting for today's script reversal.

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GasBandit

· 01-09 12:49

It's another game of "buy the rumor, sell the fact." I'm tired of this Wall Street trick. --- 92.2% of expectations are on the table. Tonight, we'll see if the non-farm payrolls surprise or not; it might even cause a sharp drop. --- Whale wallet balances on exchanges are hitting new lows. The signal is very clear—just waiting for a bottom-fishing opportunity. --- History doesn't lie. Prices rise before rate cuts and fall after. Now it's happening again—this routine never gets old. --- On-chain data is the most honest. The 21,000 coins added are right here, and big players are aware. --- Basically, it's a bet on a non-farm payroll surprise; otherwise, this rally wouldn't be so fierce. --- The jump from 89,200 to 91,000 was a sharp dip and rebound. This volatility clearly tests the market, just waiting for the non-farm payroll data moment.

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TokenomicsDetective

· 01-09 12:40

Wall Street's trick of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" is played so skillfully that the history is all there The 21,000 coins accumulated by whales, either eat noodles or eat meat, see the real deal tonight A 92.2% probability expectation, what does it mean? It should fall Non-farm data is expected to surprise to the downside, this game has turned around On-chain signals shouldn't be guessed blindly; watching exchange balances is the real way Big players are holding back their big moves, just wait and see how the non-farm report plays out Rising before rate cuts and falling after rate cuts—will this curse ever be broken?

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