Bitcoin VDD multiple remains low, confirming accumulation; improved market structure points to a breakout above $94,700

On-Chain Data Analysis Firm Glassnode’s latest report shows that Bitcoin’s VDD multiple continues to stay low, a clear signal that the market remains in the accumulation phase. Meanwhile, multiple market indicators are collectively releasing positive signals, and the market structure has significantly improved. Currently, Bitcoin’s price is around $90,189, with a key breakout level set at $94,700.

The True Meaning of Low VDD Multiple

The VDD (Value Days Destroyed Multiple) measures the ratio of short-term spending velocity to the long-term average. The core value of this indicator lies in helping investors assess the behavior patterns of market participants—when the VDD multiple remains low, it indicates that short-term spending is relatively moderate, and there is no large-scale selling pressure in the market.

Specific Manifestations of the Accumulation Phase

According to Glassnode’s analysis, the current market exhibits the following characteristics:

• Long-term holders are spending minimally, indicating that large investors are not rushing to exit
• Distribution pressure is low, suggesting a lack of strong selling momentum
• The market is digesting previous price gains in a “structural constructive manner,” which is a sign of a healthy market
• The deleveraging event by the end of 2025 has cleared a large amount of legacy positions, resetting the market structure

These phenomena collectively point to a clear conclusion: the market is laying a solid foundation rather than rushing to push prices higher.

Multi-Dimensional Evidence of Market Structure Improvement

The VDD multiple is just one aspect of market signals. More noteworthy is that multiple market indicators are simultaneously releasing positive signals:

Changes in Capital Flow and Sentiment

• ETF capital flows have stabilized, indicating orderly institutional deployment
• Participation in the futures market is rebuilding, showing trader confidence is recovering
• The options market has shifted noticeably to bullish, with skew normalizing
• Volatility has bottomed out, meaning market panic sentiment has been released

Technical Signs of Improvement

• Market makers’ gamma near key strike prices is turning negative, which usually indicates upward resistance is gradually being cleared
• The market is shifting from defensive, distribution-driven behavior to selectively re-engaging in risk

These dynamics collectively suggest that Bitcoin at the beginning of 2026 has a more robust position structure, and market participation enthusiasm is rebuilding.

Breakthrough Level: The Boundary Between Accumulation and Uptrend

Currently, Bitcoin’s price is around $90,189, just about $2,500 away from the critical breakout level of $94,700. According to Negentropic, co-founder of Glassnode, this price level has special significance—if the daily closing price reaches $94,700, the probability of retesting the all-time high will increase significantly.

Current Challenges

Despite the improvement in market structure, there is still a large amount of trapped positions accumulated above, mainly concentrated in the upper half of the current range. This means breaking through $94,700 is not easy and requires effective incremental capital to push higher. However, on-chain data indicates that the conditions for such incremental capital are gradually forming.

Summary

The low VDD multiple reflects a healthy market accumulation process. After the deep correction at the end of 2025, Bitcoin has cleared many risk factors, and the market structure has been reset. Multiple indicators now point to a rebuilding of market participation, laying the foundation for subsequent upward movement.

The key is whether the market can effectively break through the resistance at $94,700. Once confirmed, the market will face greater upside potential. But before that, the main theme remains orderly, structural accumulation—that is the most healthy market state.