Tonight's non-farm payroll data will be released, and the market is speculating on how $GUN will move. But many people are asking the wrong questions. Instead of obsessing over whether the data is bullish or bearish, it's better to understand the market's true reaction to these numbers — that is the key to asset price movements.

There are three straightforward data points to watch tonight: new jobs added, unemployment rate, and year-over-year hourly wages. The underlying logic is simple — these indicators determine whether the Federal Reserve will take action next.

Poor economic performance → increased market expectations of rate cuts → risk assets benefit; strong economy → insufficient reason for rate cuts → the Fed maintains current policy → cryptocurrencies may face adjustments. In other words, the rise and fall of cryptocurrencies like $BREV are essentially bets on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

The bullish scenario is clear: if the unemployment rate breaks below 4.7% or employment data significantly exceeds expectations, it indicates economic pressure, and the market will immediately focus on rate cuts, causing risk assets to rise. Conversely, if employment grows above expectations and the unemployment rate drops, it shows the economy is resilient, and the Fed has no reason to rush to loosen policy. The probability of maintaining rates in January soars, and the market is likely to experience volatility.

The real trick is this: don’t react blindly to the initial market response. Experienced traders focus not on the surface of the data but on whether the data exceeds expectations and whether the market will change its view on interest rates because of it. The key tonight is to understand what the market is expecting and fearing before the emotional explosion.