#非农就业数据

Tonight's US December non-farm payrolls data came in below market expectations of 60,000 to 73,000, recording only 50,000. This is the first data point since the end of the government shutdown wave at the end of 2025 that the market considers relatively clean, yet it sends a clear warning signal: the momentum of the US labor market's recovery is significantly weakening.

The increase of 50,000 in employment is not only below expectations but also continues to decline from the previous figure. The unemployment rate remains high at 4.6%, failing to fall back to 4.5% as expected, indicating that employment demand remains weak. External factors, besides the data itself, include the Supreme Court's tariff ruling tonight, which has garnered nationwide attention and has worked in tandem with non-farm payrolls to dominate risk asset sentiment.

Following the data release, due to employment growth falling short of expectations, market bets on the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates in Q1 2026 have reignited. Weaker-than-expected employment data typically depress the US dollar index. For Bitcoin, the classic logic is a weak dollar and a strong BTC. If the dollar softens due to economic slowdown expectations, BTC is likely to gain momentum to challenge the 95,000 level. Caution is needed as bad news can turn into worse news. If the market interprets the 50,000 jobs as a sign that the US economy is heading for a hard landing, cryptocurrencies, as high-volatility assets, may face liquidity liquidations before US stocks.

Currently, Bitcoin shows strong support in the 90,000 - 91,000 range. The underperformance of non-farm payrolls provides dual macro support for BTC: inflation slowdown and accommodative policies. On the technical side, focus should be on the support at 88,000. If the weekly close is above 92,000, the bullish trend will be confirmed to continue. Solana, favored by institutional funds and active on-chain ecosystems, tends to react more sensitively to such macroeconomic positives than ETH. ETH remains in a consolidation phase, affected by continuous ETF outflows, and in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it can stabilize above 3,200 with the help of macroeconomic tailwinds.