Will Bitcoin continue to decline? Analyze "what is a peak" and market outlook

Current Data

With BTC price currently at $90.47K (up 0.62% in 24 hours) and the all-time high (ATH) history at $126.08K, the biggest question now is whether Bitcoin still has room to decline or is close to the cycle bottom.

“What is the peak” in Bitcoin cycle analysis?

To answer this question, veteran analyst Joao Wedson introduced a unique indicator: the number of days in Bitcoin’s history when the price was higher than the current level. The concept of “what is the peak” here refers not just to the absolute high, but to the position of the current price relative to the entire trading history.

According to Wedson’s analysis:

• Currently, there are about 340 days in Bitcoin’s history when the price was higher than today
• In previous cycles, market bottoms often appeared when this number increased to around 700–800 days
• This means that at that threshold, the price has never surpassed most previous cycles — a sign of a historical bottom

Halving impact and macro context 2025

After the 2024 halving event, Bitcoin’s supply decreases but the market still needs time to reprice. Key factors affecting BTC in 2025 include:

Institutional capital flows: ETFs and investment products from major funds remain the main drivers. Net capital inflows or outflows will amplify volatility in both directions.

Macroeconomic conditions: Interest rates, inflation, and global growth prospects determine risk sentiment. If interest rates stay high or increase, risk assets will face pressure.

Legal regulations: Policy changes in key markets will directly impact capital flows and investor confidence.

Scenario of retesting the $69,000 level

Based on cycle logic, Wedson mentions the possibility of Bitcoin returning to test a lower price zone compared to the 2021 peak — around $69,000. This is a risk scenario if the long-term correction continues.

However, many supporting factors could prevent or reverse this trend:

• Increasing adoption of Bitcoin in real-world payments
• Continued institutional capital seeking inflation-hedged assets
• Technical improvements and ecosystem developments boosting demand
• Market sentiment shifting from fear to greed after many investors have taken profits

Strategy for smart investors

Instead of betting on a single scenario, investors should:

Diversify: Do not allocate all capital to BTC; consider a multi-asset portfolio aligned with risk appetite.

Stop-loss management: Set stop-loss orders before entering positions to minimize losses during sharp declines.

Dollar-cost averaging (DCA): If confident in long-term prospects, accumulate gradually rather than investing everything at once.

Maintain liquidity: Keep cash reserves to seize opportunities when attractive price zones appear.

Combine multiple indicators: Use on-chain analysis, historical indicators, and miner behavior to get a comprehensive picture.

Conclusion: Time will tell

Wedson emphasizes: “This is entirely related to the logic of market cycles. Perhaps the only question remaining is time.”

With the current indicator of 340 days, according to Wedson’s criteria, Bitcoin may not have reached the cycle bottom yet. However, in 2025, the outcome will depend on the balance between macro factors, institutional flows, and market psychology.

Smart investors do not just wait; they plan for multiple scenarios, prioritize risk management, and patiently wait for a confirmed trend rather than act on market emotions.