Bitcoin 2026: Why the 4-year cycle is no longer the "golden rule" and what transformation is happening in the market?

Summary

• What to Expect and Disappoint in 2025
• What is the 4-Year (halving cycle) - Is it still valid?
• 2026: New Challenges as Market Structure Changes
• Key Numbers to Watch Daily
• Two Opposing Scenarios and Opportunities for Investors

What to Expect and Disappoint in 2025

“The Golden Year of Crypto” – a name that promises well given the favorable political climate in the US, the Fed gradually cutting interest rates, and forecasts pointing in one direction: strong growth. But reality tells a different story.

Bitcoin ends 2025 with a 5.7% decrease. However, the shocking figure is in the last quarter – a historically explosive period for the market – which plunged 23.7%, the worst since 2018. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $90.46K, up 1.12% in the past 24 hours.

This discrepancy is not just normal price volatility. It forces the investment community to ask a fundamental question: Has the crypto market entered a classic bear phase according to historical cycles, or has it evolved into a completely new structure?

What is the 4-Year (halving cycle) – Is it still valid?

What is the 4-year halving cycle? It describes the recurring pattern of Bitcoin price movements following a rule: every 4 years (at each halving), the market goes through a certain cycle – from strong gains to deep corrections, then starting over.

For over a decade, this model has been considered the “natural law” of Bitcoin. But recent data suggests this mechanism is losing effectiveness.

Why? Because Bitcoin no longer operates within a closed ecosystem. Since the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, BTC has officially become a macro asset – influenced by capital flows from major financial institutions, not just supply shocks from halving.

The new factors truly determining Bitcoin’s price today are:

• Global M2 money supply – the amount of money issued by central banks
• Fed interest rate policies – whether rates are rising or falling
• International market liquidity – not on the blockchain

Supply shocks have been replaced by demand shocks. This is why the “4-year cycle” is losing its power.

2026: New Challenges as Market Structure Changes

Instead of asking “Will 2026 be a year of growth or decline?”, top experts are focusing on a different scenario: The market will undergo a “Structural Consolidation” phase – not a booming rise, nor a complete collapse, but somewhere in between: stable yet volatile.

Two main forces will support this market structure:

1. Institutional presence: Large companies and pension funds holding Bitcoin create a solid “price floor.” They do not panic sell during dips because they buy for long-term holding.

2. Clear legal framework: New legislation (like the GENIUS Act) helps eliminate legal risks and encourages long-term capital inflows.

However, this stability will come with significant polarization:

• Bitcoin will lead, acting as a safe haven (safe haven)
• Altcoins lacking real-world utility will face intense pressure to be eliminated

Key Numbers to Watch Daily

To forecast accurately, professional investors need to monitor the break-even prices of major entities:

Two early warning indicators:

1. Stablecoin market cap – a sudden drop indicates capital leaving the entire ecosystem, signaling a long-term “winter”
2. Negative funding rate + decreasing open interest – shows the market shifting into full defensive mode

Two Opposing Scenarios and Opportunities for Investors

Negative Scenario: External Risks

Although the market has matured, deep price declines still exist. But shocks this time will come from outside the crypto ecosystem:

• AI bubble burst: If the tech sector crashes, stock markets will be dragged down, and Bitcoin (high correlation with global risk) will be affected
• Major stablecoin devaluation: An incident at an exchange or a stablecoin losing value could trigger a domino effect
• Global recession: If institutions withdraw capital entirely due to recession fears

Positive Scenario: Path to $150,000

Conversely, Bitcoin’s price surge will depend on the shift from “speculative asset” to “strategic reserve”:

1. G20 countries begin adding BTC to foreign exchange reserves – demand from governments will surpass current supply
2. Tokenization (tokenization of real assets) – bonds, real estate on blockchain, increasing practical utility
3. Global monetary easing – weakening USD, fiscal stimulus from governments

If these conditions align, accumulation could explode into a strong rally aiming to surpass $150,000.

Conclusion: Looking Beyond the “Cycle”

2026 is not the time to just look at the calendar and mechanically wait for the 4-year cycle to repeat. This is a phase of market maturity, where macro capital flows and the behavior of major financial institutions are the real decisive factors.

Investors should ignore traditional “Bull” or “Bear” labels, and instead focus on:

• Actual capital flows (stablecoin data, trading volume)
• Structural signals from derivatives data (funding rate, open interest)
• Correlations with global macro assets (tech stocks, Fed policies)

Those who understand this shift will have a significant advantage in 2026 and beyond.

Disclaimer: This article is a compilation of analyses from multiple public sources. Readers should conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.