2026-01-09 14:40:46

#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 Non-farm payroll data just came out, and the market sentiment has shifted again. According to the latest analysis from Jintou Data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January has fallen to 2.8%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged has surged to 97.2%—basically indicating that rate cuts are unlikely in the near term.

Looking at long-term expectations, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the end of March is only 32.3%, with a 66.8% chance of keeping rates steady. Want to see a 50 basis point cut? The probability is as low as 0.9%, meaning the market is basically not hopeful.

What does this mean for $BTC and the entire crypto market? The environment of tight liquidity will continue to persist, and don't expect significant policy-driven boosts in the short term. For long traders, this data indeed adds uncertainty, requiring more cautious risk management.

BTC0,79%

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MissingSats

· 14h ago

Another message about cutting leeks, non-farm payrolls messed up again, no rate cuts now, how to speculate? --- 97.2% chance of no rate cut? Then just wait to be locked out, who dares to take the risk with tight liquidity? --- Talking about cautious risk management, in plain words, stop gambling, this wave will drop significantly. --- Only a 0.9% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut? Laughing to death, should have seen it clearly, the Federal Reserve never intended to save us. --- With the non-farm payrolls report, tomorrow will be a mess again, all long positions will have to cut losses.

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TestnetScholar

· 01-09 15:10

97.2% chance of no rate cut, which is hinting that we need to endure for a while. Once again, liquidity is tight. Going long right now definitely requires caution and restraint. As soon as this data came out, I knew that in the short term, don't expect a policy-driven rally. It seems I need to change my strategy, focusing on stability, everyone. I've actually had a premonition that once non-farm payrolls miss expectations, this is what will happen. BTC will continue to consolidate.

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FUDwatcher

· 01-09 14:54

97.2% no rate cut... This is basically saying stop dreaming, liquidity continues to be tight, everyone going long should be careful.

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MintMaster

· 01-09 14:48

Here we go again, every non-farm payroll report stirs up the waters Bitcoin still has to keep lying low, liquidity is the bottleneck Friends who are long should cut losses when necessary, don’t be too greedy Let’s wait and see, it feels like the bottom hasn’t been reached yet 97.2% maintaining interest rates... this number seems a bit absolute Short-term outlook looks bleak, HODLers are about to suffer again So is now the safest choice to stay on the sidelines? The whole market is speculating about rate cuts, but nothing has happened That’s why I’m only trading small amounts now, I can’t afford to lose

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ser_aped.eth

· 01-09 14:47

Damn, no rate cut again, now the chance to buy the dip is really gone Wait, does this mean liquidity will continue to be drained? Feeling uncomfortable 97.2% no cut, thinking about it carefully is terrifying... Luckily I didn't go all in Honestly, expecting a rate cut is no longer realistic, now it depends on when the Federal Reserve will really soften That's not right, in this case, short-term BTC will still be under pressure Liquidity crunch continues... then I have to reduce my position to survive The dream of a rate cut is completely shattered, this data really hits hard

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