Altcoin Season 2025: Hope or Bitter Reality? Why Is Money Still "Stuck" in Bitcoin?

The crypto market is experiencing a conflict between community optimism and harsh on-chain evidence. Social media is flooded with statements about “Altcoin Season coming,” but actual data paints a completely different picture. Amid the cheers of the crowd and the silence of most individual portfolios, are we truly about to enter a historic bull cycle or is this just a sophisticated liquidity trap?

Main Content

• Not All Are Rising
• Bitcoin Dominates 55%: The Monopoly of the Number 1 King
• Macro Experts’ Warning: FOMO Is a Dangerous Trap
• What Is Really Happening: Choose Instead of Diversify

Not All Are Rising

The concept of “Altcoin Season” is traditionally understood by investors as a period when smart money leverages Bitcoin’s flow to shift into smaller-cap coins, creating a spreading rally. In previous cycles, this was often a time when nearly any altcoin could surge strongly, regardless of technological quality.

But the current reality challenges this assumption.

Data from advanced analytical tools shows a somewhat bleak market picture. Over the past 60 days, only 8 out of 55 top altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin. This is a shocking figure — success rate of only about 14.5%, far from the hopeful “altcoin seasons.”

Instead of a rain of money everywhere, we are witnessing a concentrated shower. While most tokens are still struggling at low or sideways prices, only a few names stand out as the sole stars:

• BAT (Basic Attention Token): approximately 25% growth compared to Bitcoin
• CHZ (Chiliz): also not far behind with nearly 10% increase in the same period

These numbers, though promising for holders of these coins, are the clearest evidence that capital flow has not truly “diversified.” The Altcoin Season Index (Altcoin Season Index) — a market temperature gauge — remains low, reflecting that altcoins are only small sparks, not enough to ignite a large fire around Bitcoin’s dominance.

Bitcoin Dominates 55%: The Monopoly of the Number 1 King

To explain why your altcoin portfolio is still “bleeding” despite abundant positive news, look at a key indicator: Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D).

Currently (January 2026), Bitcoin’s market share has risen to 55.85%, while Ethereum only accounts for 11.51%. This has a much bigger significance than it appears.

The “Capital Rotation” Theory Is Stalled

According to a classic crypto theory:

Bitcoin rises → Bitcoin stagnates → Capital flows into Ethereum → Capital disperses into Mid/Low-cap coins

But this year, this chain reaction has been interrupted from the very first step. Capital is still “stuck” in Bitcoin, unwilling to move.

Why Does Bitcoin’s Dominance Remain Steadfast?

1. Institutional Money Is Only Seeking Safety

In 2025-2026, the main bullish drivers are ETFs and large financial institutions. These investors have extremely conservative risk appetites. They only buy Bitcoin and some Ethereum. They completely avoid altcoins due to legal concerns and high volatility.

2. Bitcoin Is the “Digital Gold” in Uncertain Times

With global macroeconomic uncertainties around inflation and interest rates, Bitcoin is seen as the safest haven. Conversely, altcoins — with potential legal risks and token inflation from “unlock” events — are considered high-risk assets.

Bitcoin’s steady dominance at 55% sends a clear message: “Big sharks are not ready to abandon safety to gamble on the unknown.”

When large capital remains stationary, any altcoin rally is just weak efforts from small investors.

Macro Experts’ Warning: FOMO Is a Dangerous Trap

Amid the hype from online communities, warnings from heavyweight experts become crucial.

Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision — a reputable voice in macro crypto analysis — pointed out a phenomenon he calls “Psychological Trap” in the current market.

Social Media Amplifies Mistakes

Twitter/X is distorting reality. When a few coins rise, the feed is flooded with images of huge profits. FOMO is triggered. Small investors mistakenly believe “Altcoin Season has arrived” and rush to leverage to “catch up.”

( The Danger of Leverage in a Divided Market

Pal emphasizes that, when Bitcoin Dominance is high )like now###, the risk of leverage increases significantly:

• Just a 5% correction in Bitcoin can cause altcoins to drop 15-20% immediately
• Leveraged long positions will be liquidated in succession, creating long red candles that wipe out accounts before the market recovers

His advice is very clear: In a cycle driven by institutions, trying to “grab every penny” by betting on weak altcoins is the riskiest strategy.

What Is Really Happening: Choose Instead of Diversify

The crypto market is not “dead,” it is simply maturing. Capital is no longer easy — it demands quality, practical application, and technical safety.

“Altcoin Season” may come, but it will arrive later and more selectively. It won’t be a sprint, but a process of choosing projects with real value.

( Lessons for Investors

The message now is: Don’t let shiny images on social media cloud your judgment.

• Observe smart money flow, not follow the crowd
• Be patient and hold assets with solid fundamentals
• Absolutely avoid FOMO traps and dangerous leverage

In investing, long-term survivors are the winners, not the fastest runners.

Disclaimer: This article is a compilation of publicly available information. It does not verify or guarantee the accuracy of third-party content. Readers should conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions or participating in any activities.