Zama's new listing registration is now open. This new listing mechanism will differ somewhat from the common Dutch auction, so I’ll give a brief introduction and share my thoughts on participation.

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👀 Token Details
- 8% of tokens are sold at a minimum bid price of 55m.
- All ICO tokens are unlocked.
- Token functions: governance, staking, payment of encrypted fees.

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👀 Closed Dutch Auction (sealed-bid)
ZAMA uses its own FHE technology to keep bids private; prices are public but bid quantities are encrypted. So no one can monitor the mempool or snatch orders at the last minute.

1️⃣ The auction runs from the 21st to the 24th. During the bidding period, you can submit multiple bids or cancel at any time. The minimum bid amount is 1 yuan, with no upper limit.
2️⃣ Because prices are public but quantities are private, you can bid 1 yuan at the highest price, but also bid 1m at 5500 bids. During the three days from the 21st to the 24th, you can cancel your bid at any time.
3️⃣ From January 24th to February 1st, ZAMA will fill bids from high to low prices. Bids below the liquidation line will be refunded; bids above the line will be finalized at the liquidation line price.

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👀 Price Prediction

@Zama has raised a total of 130 million USD, a truly top-tier project. Valuations for privacy infrastructure projects are usually overpriced, and their profitability is far less than perp, but blockchain is not a PE-driven industry.

Currently, BN pre-market cap is 1.3 billion, VC Series A cost is 400 million, Series B is 1 billion. I estimate the liquidation line for this new listing should be around 1 billion.

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👀 Details and Strategies for Zama’s New Listing

I have to say, participating in Zama’s new listing is quite challenging.

Because this mechanism encourages everyone to bid higher and higher, leading to a bidding war. The hope-driven mentality makes people think that even if they bid the highest price at the end, they can still participate at the liquidation line.

Suppose the final liquidation line is 500m; the most painful bidders are those who bid at 490m. The happiest are those who bid up to 1b but still settle at the 500m liquidation line.

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👀 My Thoughts
Normal approach:
For me, Zama’s ICO is more like a financial game; there’s no particularly high multiplier involved. Also, pre-market liquidity for BN is actually quite poor, and hedging could easily wipe you out.

So if the final transaction reaches 1b, there will be a $100 million sell pressure at the start of February. The pre-market cap of 1.3b could quickly drop to 800-900 million USD.

Therefore, a tiered bidding strategy of 7-8-9 levels could be used.

Dark horse approach:
Here’s an interesting point: if the team uses their wallet to bid at extremely high prices in the public offering, retail investors might not hold many tokens. They could then manipulate the token price sky-high.

After all, the entire auction is conducted via FHE technology, so you have no idea what prices your opponents are bidding at or how many tokens they’re bidding with. If this scenario plays out, it could be a genius-level manipulation!!

Anyway, participation link