Non-farm payroll data is out, and the market reaction remains polarized. Good news and bad news are both easily interpreted as positive, which is the current ecosystem of risk markets.

The unemployment rate dropped from 4.5% to 4.4%, which at first glance is a sign of economic improvement. However, the underlying logic actually lowers expectations for the Fed to cut rates in 2026. A declining unemployment rate indicates continued tightness in the labor market, and inflationary pressures may be difficult to ease quickly, which dampens support for aggressive rate cuts.

Employment population data is also being adjusted in real-time, although specific figures are still being compiled, the overall trend has already emerged. The real variables are twofold — the economic policy direction of Trump’s new administration, and the operational approach of the new Federal Reserve Chair. These two black swans could rewrite the entire rate cut timetable for 2026.