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Non-farm payroll data shows another strange combination! Hiring stagnation with unemployment rate dropping, will the liquidity window in the crypto world change?
December non-farm payrolls are really hard to pin down. Only 50,000 new jobs, far below the expected 60,000-70,000, yet the unemployment rate stubbornly drops to 4.4%. On the surface, it doesn't look too bad, but a closer look reveals all the tricks—companies aren't engaging in large-scale layoffs; they've simply hit the pause button on hiring. This creates an awkward situation: the stability of the unemployment rate is just an illusion, while the difficulty of finding a job is actually increasing, and structural friction between employers and job seekers is intensifying. What's more painful than layoffs alone is that this reflects a quiet retreat in economic demand, not a short-term adjustment.
Understanding industry differentiation makes it clearer: leisure hotels and healthcare services are still holding up, while retail, manufacturing, and construction—these tangible industries—are clearly struggling. A classic case of a "hot and cold" double reality.
The most direct impact on the crypto market is on interest rates. Wages increased by 0.3% month-over-month, within expectations, and inflation isn't adding new fuel. The Federal Reserve is likely adopting a "wait-and-see" stance, staying silent for now, leaving future rate cuts to be dictated by upcoming data. This means liquidity won't suddenly tighten, and the weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls actually reduce the risk of rate hikes, giving risk assets like BTC and ETH some breathing room. The market has always interpreted "weak data" as "room for rate cuts," which is indeed a short-term positive.
But don't get too confident. There are hidden dangers behind this apparent good news: if subsequent non-farm payrolls remain sluggish, with long-term unemployment and passive part-time work pressures building up, the market narrative could quickly shift from "soft landing" to "weakening demand." When that happens, valuation logic will need to change. Crypto assets are highly sensitive to liquidity; in the short term, they might rally on the "diminished rate hike risk" optimism, but ultimately, they can't stop the ongoing wave of economic fundamental weakness. The real concern isn't slight fluctuations in the unemployment rate, but whether this "hidden contraction" in the job market will spill over into consumption and inflation.
By the way, will the non-farm payrolls return to healthy levels in the next three months? Will BTC continue to fluctuate due to "hiring stagnation," or has the market already priced in the rate cut expectations?