#美联储政策 The Federal Reserve's policy trajectory is becoming a key variable in current cryptocurrency prices. The core logic is quite clear: if interest rates remain unchanged and the RMPs plan is halted in Q1 2026, there is indeed a risk of Bitcoin falling to $70,000; conversely, if RMPs continue to inject liquidity, the upside potential of $92,000-$98,000 becomes more plausible.

The key point to watch is here — the Federal Reserve ended QT on December 1 and started reserve management purchases, with $40 billion of short-term government bonds bought each month, essentially injecting liquidity. This creates a policy expectation gap compared to market expectations of an "end to the rate hike cycle," providing short-term support for risk assets.

From an on-chain capital perspective, the $50 billion ETF net inflow and ongoing institutional accumulation indicate that large funds are voting with their feet. Such incremental capital usually does not withdraw quickly due to a single policy statement, showing resilience. It is recommended to focus on two signals: first, the actual policy announcement from the Federal Reserve in Q1 2026; second, whether the RMPs plan is extended as scheduled. These two variables will directly determine the subsequent capital game direction. In the short term, there's no need to be overly pessimistic, but sufficient headroom should be reserved for managing downside risks.