Recently, the international situation has been escalating, but many are still chasing hot topics. The emergency evacuation of personnel and their families from Russian diplomatic agencies is far from ordinary, pointing to a potential major conflict warning at the end of this month. For those who have been closely monitoring geopolitical tensions and their interaction with the crypto market, what does this signal mean? The risk switch in the crypto world may soon be activated.

Many people are still using outdated thinking—"Geopolitical conflict = safe-haven assets strengthen = Bitcoin rises." But a review of the past five years of data shows that this logic has already become invalid.

At the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Bitcoin indeed surged, with an increase of nearly 20%. But what happened afterward? Soaring energy prices triggered a global interest rate hike cycle, and Bitcoin then fell by 65%. By 2024, tensions in the Middle East flared up mid-year, yet Bitcoin's volatility was only around ±3%—institutional funds and spot ETFs formed a buffer, and the market's reaction mechanism has changed significantly.

The most painful part is that just yesterday (January 8), the crypto market experienced a collective plunge. Bitcoin broke below 90,000, over 127,700 accounts were liquidated, and $460 million in funds evaporated in an instant. This was before the market fully digested the geopolitical risks.

The current situation is even more complicated. The full evacuation of embassy staff is a top-level warning signal, even stronger than the one before the airstrike on June 2025. Meanwhile, market liquidity is already tight. Under such circumstances, if something truly happens, the market will find it hard to have the same buffer as before.

How big is this wave of risk? Clearly, the market is still discounting it. Those who are already trapped at high positions and heavily leveraged may be the first to bear the brunt.