#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Data Arrives, and the report is a bit awkward—job gains didn't meet expectations, but the unemployment rate didn't spike either. In simple terms, the economy is slowing down, but not to the point of losing control.

How does the market interpret this data? Just one word: rate cuts are not coming so quickly. Those expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates rapidly will have to wait a bit longer.

This gets interesting. From a conventional logic perspective, weak non-farm data should be beneficial for risk assets like BTC, but this "weakness" isn't thorough enough. Instead, it leaves the market in an awkward position—no clear upward momentum, but also not falling enough to trigger a strong buy-the-dip response. What’s the result? Funds are moving in and out frequently, with mostly short-term trades, and no one dares to hold heavy positions.

Looking at BTC's recent performance, you can feel this dilemma—there's a rebound, but volume always lags behind, like a train engine without power.

My personal judgment is: this round of non-farm data won't trigger a trend reversal; it might even be a false signal. The more likely scenario is initial volatility followed by a downward move. Unless there are clear macro signals indicating a shift (like the Fed really starting a rate cut cycle), BTC still has room to test lower levels. Around 78,000 should still be a reasonable mid-term observation zone.

$BTC