#稳定币发展与应用 After reading this entrepreneur's reflection, what touched me the most was not his decision to give up, but his clear understanding of the essence of the payment industry — it's a "water flow business." Whoever controls long-term banking relationships, compliance systems, and risk control capabilities can stand on the waterway and make money. Short-term product optimizations cannot fundamentally shake this structure.

This also reminds me of a similar principle when copying trades. Many people see a trader winning several times in a row and rush to copy, thinking he's making "smart money." In reality, he's earning from years of accumulated risk control skills and understanding of market structure. What you don't see are the many stop-losses behind him, and how many times he's avoided risks before they become truly explicit.

The story of stablecoins is the same. The reports are glowing, with Yiwu, Water Bay, and Mexico all using them, but after a full circle, you'll find that most of the usage is scattered, relationship-driven "patches," far from forming a scalable main pathway. It's like a trader's account shows profits, but if you look closely at his position structure and risk exposure, you'll see he's just avoiding stress testing for now.

So, looking at the Web3 payment opportunities now, my judgment is even more cautious. The opportunity does exist, but it’s not in product innovation. It’s in those players who can withstand long-term compliance pressure, have sufficient capital reserves, and are willing to spend ten years building infrastructure. When choosing to copy, the most important thing is not just the return rate — you need to see whether those returns come from genuine capability accumulation or just temporary risk premiums. They may look like making money the same way, but how long they can survive is completely different.