#以太坊大户持仓变化 Hundred-billion-dollar refund rights have become the new "bet"—a financial gamble outside the Supreme Court

The US Treasury Secretary announced that funds are ready; once the court rules that a trade policy exceeds authority, the Treasury must refund companies potentially up to a hundred billion dollars. This is no longer just a legal dispute but a financial feast on Wall Street.

Hedge funds have sniffed out the opportunity. They are buying "future refund rights" from cash-strapped companies at 20-40% of their value. The rules are simple: if the judge nods, the funds double; if the judge shakes their head, the money goes down the drain. It has evolved into a market of "policy derivatives" more疯狂 than stocks.

On the surface, it’s a refund, but essentially it’s a "liquidity bomb." Imagine a hundred billion dollars suddenly flowing from the treasury into the market after a ruling, potentially draining trading venues of liquidity in the short term. A deeper threat is a "stress test" on the President’s trade powers. Once the ruling is out, the market’s first reaction to each future tariff policy won’t be "up or down," but "Is this thing legal? Can they really collect it? Will it be returned?"

$ETH

Traders now need to develop mind-reading skills. When law becomes the biggest variable in the market, every ruling can rewrite the logic of asset allocation.