Ethereum faces multiple positive catalysts in 2026, but whether these factors are enough to break through the key resistance of $3300 ultimately depends on whether investors' average cost targets can be achieved.

From the capital side, the continuous influx of institutional strength is the most direct support. The US spot Ethereum ETF has already controlled about 3.8% of the circulating supply, and leading institutions like BlackRock are actively testing on-chain settlement solutions. This is not just a trend in digital asset allocation but also a safeguard for Ethereum's position at the core of asset tokenization, providing relatively stable bottom support for the price.

The benefits of technical upgrades are also gradually being realized. The Fusaka upgrade launched in December last year enhanced the network's scalability and significantly reduced Layer 2 transaction fees. If subsequent upgrades continue in 2026, Ethereum's competitive advantage in the real-world asset tokenization field will be further strengthened—this is crucial for ecosystem development.

On the supply side, a tightening trend is emerging. About 29% of ETH is staked, and the actual liquid supply has decreased significantly. When demand continues to grow steadily while supply passively decreases, the price elasticity of upward movement will naturally be amplified. This is the basic logic of market mechanisms.

The improvement of the regulatory environment is also worth noting. The US "GENIUS Act" has cleared many regulatory hurdles for stablecoins, and the upcoming "CLARITY Act" aims to establish a comprehensive framework for asset tokenization and public blockchain infrastructure. This indicates that Ethereum is shifting from a "technological experiment" to a "global financial infrastructure" role.

That said, these long-term positives may be constrained in the short term by macro liquidity changes, Bitcoin dominance fluctuations, and other factors. Investors should maintain a rational attitude and avoid blindly increasing leverage based solely on positive news. The market's complexity far exceeds expectations.