Recently, I’ve been watching the market for a few days, and BTC’s recent movement is quite interesting. On the surface, there doesn’t seem to be any major action, but the details reveal many clues.

Starting with the technical analysis. The current price is around 90,475, closely hugging the lower Bollinger Band (89,898), but the volatility is only 0.21%, indicating that the market is brewing a trend change under suppression. The Bollinger Bands have noticeably narrowed, with the middle band at 90,613 becoming a short-term resistance point. Once broken, the upper band at 91,330 will become the next testing target.

How about moving averages? MA(30) and EMA(30) are still above the price, but the short-term MA(7) and EMA(7) have flattened, which means selling pressure is weakening. On the MACD side, DIF (68.7) remains higher than DEA (66.0), and the histogram has shrunk to 5.3, a typical sign of bullish momentum building up. A golden cross should come soon. Especially noteworthy is that the price repeatedly tests the 90,400-90,600 range. If the hourly chart can hold above 90,600 steadily, the technical pattern will shift to a stronger stance.

Looking at on-chain data. In the past 24 hours, large addresses have accumulated over 5,000 BTC, and exchange net outflows have surged by 15%. What signals does this send? Smart money is accumulating at the bottom rather than dumping. Holder sentiment has shifted from panic to greed, which is often a bottom indicator. Active addresses on the Bitcoin network have risen to a one-year high, on-chain transaction fees are stable, and the fundamental support remains strong. Data doesn’t lie — the accumulation phase is indeed nearing its end.

On the macro front, there are also positive signals. The Fed’s rate cut expectations are heating up, and the dollar is weakening, which is a spring breeze for risk assets. Industry-wise, news has emerged this morning that several institutions are applying to launch additional Bitcoin ETFs, with the pace of compliance accelerating, and incremental funds are eager to move. Market sentiment among retail investors is still cautious, but OTC large orders are increasing in frequency, indicating that smart money has already taken the lead.

Combining these signals, I think BTC has a good chance this time. The technical correction is nearing its end, on-chain accumulation signals are clear, and positive news is frequent — three dimensions are resonating. My judgment is that within the next 24 hours, BTC should first solidify support at 90,000-90,200, then volume-break through 91,000, targeting 92,000. For short-term participation, you can consider gradually entering below 90,500, with a stop-loss at 89,800.

Markets tend to explode amid hesitation. My analysis is based on data and practical experience, not just guesses. Let’s see how the market unfolds next.