The latest US labor data truly left the market a bit confused.

**The numbers themselves tell the story—**

Non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs, while expectations were for 60,000 to 73,000. Not only was this month disappointing, but previous data was also revised downward—November was revised to 56,000, and October was directly changed to a negative 173,000. Combining October and November, there are 76,000 fewer jobs. Looking at the annual report card, 584,000 new jobs is the worst year since 2020. The unemployment rate was a bit surprising—4.4%, actually lower than the 4.5% forecast and the previous 4.6%. Average hourly earnings remained at 0.3% month-over-month, basically in line with expectations, with no significant fluctuations.

**What does this mean for the market and policy?**

The Fed's expectation of rate cuts has been directly shattered. The probability of another rate cut in January is now close to zero. Traders are now betting that the Federal Reserve will hold steady and continue to monitor employment and inflation trends. Looking ahead, the annual rate cut expectations have also become much more cautious—no one dares to guarantee what the pace will be.

On the asset side, the dollar came under pressure and retreated, while gold took the opportunity to strengthen. US stock futures rose slightly, but market attention has shifted to another phenomenon—the fact that companies are neither hiring much nor firing much. This "low recruitment, low layoffs" deadlock signals a dangerous risk: the lack of employment expansion. Is it the weather and holidays disrupting hiring rhythms, or are companies long-term pessimistic about demand? We need to continue observing changes in labor supply and productivity to draw conclusions.