As of noon on January 10th, Ethereum remains volatile in the short term, with a generally weak trend. However, from the perspective of the ecosystem and institutions, there are medium-term opportunities; the long-term true support points still depend on whether technology and applications can keep up.

**How to view this past month**

Currently, the price hovers around $3,070, with clear resistance at $3,150-$3,300. The support levels at $3,000 and $2,930 are critical to hold. The 4-hour chart has already shown signs of a rebound followed by a pullback. If the bulls want to turn the tide, they must defend $3,000 and recover the $3,150 level. If they fail to hold, the price could directly drop to the $2,800-$2,900 range.

Interestingly, the staking queue has now accumulated to 1.759 million ETH (about $5.5 billion), while the exit queue has cleared—indicating that investors still have confidence in Ethereum and want to stake to earn yields. However, market sentiment remains somewhat cautious, and short-term volatility is quite possible.

**What to expect in the next half year**

The medium-term outlook will become more complex. Currently, Ethereum still moves in tandem with Bitcoin, but as ETH 2.0 deepens, Layer 2 ecosystems expand, and RWA (Real-World Assets) gradually come to fruition, Ethereum’s trajectory will become increasingly independent. The focus will shift from hype to fundamentals such as ecosystem revenue, user numbers, and genuine institutional demand.

Key factors influencing the trend include: capital flows in spot ETFs, whether staking yields can remain attractive, activity levels on Layer 2, and any new regulatory actions. If Ethereum can break through the critical resistance at $3,300-$3,450, there’s a chance to surge toward $3,800-$4,000. Conversely, if it breaks below $2,900, it may retest the $2,600-$2,800 zone.

**Looking at the longer term**

What truly determines Ethereum’s value are technological innovations and whether application scenarios can be realized. Further improvements in PoS consensus, the implementation of sharding technology, and the scalability of Layer series are decisive factors within 1-5 years. Whether the ecosystem can attract more developers and users, and whether application scenarios are abundant, these fundamentals form the underlying logic supporting long-term trends.