#以太坊大户持仓变化 Capital rate suddenly shifted, and this time the judgment was validated

On-chain data never lies. Recently, I’ve been monitoring exchange fund flows for several days, and the curve from a certain data platform matches quite eerily.

Let’s start with the conclusion: the emotional turning point has arrived, but don’t get excited yet. The panic selling in BTC and ETH has basically been cleaned out, and the subsequent phase will be characterized by repeated oscillations and slow bottom-building. As for those small-cap coins? The timing isn’t right yet; the bullets need to be reserved.

Why are mainstream coins no longer being bearish? Just look at the data — the funding rate has returned to a neutral level. It might not seem like much, but what does this indicate? The wave of frantic shorting and betting on decline has subsided. Plus, the real picture on-chain: whale addresses have been accumulating recently, and exchange-held coins are basically not increasing; in fact, there’s some outflow. What does this mean? Large funds aren’t dumping, but possibly bottom-fishing. The panic selling phase has temporarily paused.

Why are altcoins still being viewed negatively? The reason is in the chart — the funding rates for small-cap coins are still negative, and the market is this realistic. Money is flowing back from risk assets to core assets. When the market is uncertain, funds prioritize self-preservation, returning to resilient large-cap assets like BTC and ETH. Altcoins have fallen too hard recently; rebuilding confidence takes time, especially since many projects’ fundamentals can’t support their prices. Jumping in now? Likely to get caught in a trap.

What’s the next rhythm? Here’s my personal view:

Mainstream coins: Likely entering a phase of repeated oscillation, not a V-shaped reversal all at once. The bulls still need time to build momentum, with many trapped positions pressing down from above. But the bottom area is gradually becoming clearer; blindly being bearish is just foolish. The key is whether they can hold above important support levels.

Small coins: Will continue to differentiate. Some may move first due to major players or significant positive news, but the sector as a whole hasn’t started a rally. Once the mainstream coins stabilize completely, funds will slowly flow out to seek opportunities in small-cap coins. The most valuable thing right now is patience.