#密码资产动态追踪 The sharp decline of Bitcoin last November left a deep impression on me. In October, it just touched $126,000, and with the bullish trend heating up, who would have expected a complete reversal in November? In just a couple of weeks, it broke through the $100,000 mark, finally stabilizing at around $89,000—almost a 30% drop. Many friends around me who used leverage were liquidated directly.

Only then did I understand the reason: the Federal Reserve changed its tone, with Powell explicitly stating that interest rates would remain high for a long time. Once that was announced, institutional investors panicked, spot ETF outflows continued for five weeks, and big players were疯狂砍仓 (cutting positions wildly). Coincidentally, Trump was also engaged in tariffs and trade wars, causing global funds to rush into gold and the US dollar. The halo of Bitcoin as a "safe haven" was instantly invalidated, panic spread, and selling pressure surged. The entire market fell into a vicious cycle—selling more as it drops, dropping more as it sells.

Now, things are calmer. Even CryptoQuant’s CEO admits that we might be entering a long-term consolidation phase, with trading volume dead and quiet, new funds hardly entering, and the Fear & Greed Index still in the "fear" zone. My holdings are showing significant unrealized losses, but I have no plans to sell—rather than frequently trading in this environment, it’s better to stay calm. The expected pattern for the first half of this year is a repeated oscillation around the $90,000 level, building a bottom. Big moves are not worth considering. A more practical approach is to hold mainstream coins for staking and earning, or to buy in batches to average down the cost, patiently waiting for the next cycle opportunity.

$BTC