#BTCMarketAnalysis

📉 BTC Reality Check — $91K Zone
We are in a tug-of-war zone. Bitcoin peaked at $126K in late 2025 but has corrected and is now hovering around $90K–$92K.
⚠️ Bull Trap Risk
Many traders are calling this a bottom, but short-term technicals are warning — a “Death Cross” is looming on some charts. Unless BTC convincingly reclaims $94K, a “Final Flush” down to $75K–$80K remains possible.
🌍 Macro & Geopolitics
Rising tensions in Iran & Venezuela are confusing the market: is BTC risk-on tech or digital gold? Currently, it’s tracking Nasdaq, meaning macro caution is winning.

🧭 My Strategy — Three Pillars
1️⃣ 60/40 Cash Buffer

Increased stablecoins (USDT/USDC) to 40%.

Liquidity is your superpower. If BTC dips to $80K, I’ll be buying while others are liquidated.

2️⃣ Focus on Institutional Floors

Corporate treasuries and ETFs are providing strong support.

Strategy: Spot buying > high-leverage futures. Leverage gets wiped fast; holding BTC ignores noise.

3️⃣ Triggers & Invalidation

Bullish Trigger: Daily close above $94.7K → confirms correction is over, next stop $110K+.

Bearish Invalidation: Close below $88K → move 20% more into stables and wait for $76K “Golden Pocket” retest.

🛡️ Risk Management

2026 tests the 4-year cycle — moves are institutional, more calculated, yet sharper.

Don’t trade the wick — trade the body. Wait for daily candle closes before acting.

📌 Quick Signal Summary
Bullish: Close above $94.7K → next target $100K+
Bearish: Close below $88K → downside to $80K–$76K

BTC is in a tug-of-war — reclaim $94.7K for upside, or if $88K breaks, prepare for washouts toward $80K.