The current administration's tariff policies have survived initial legal challenges and are being allowed to proceed for now. However, market participants on prediction platforms are far more skeptical about long-term prospects—traders are currently pricing in just a 25% probability that the U.S. Supreme Court will ultimately approve and uphold these tariffs.

This legal uncertainty is significant. While the policies remain in effect today, the data suggests the market sees substantial constitutional or legal vulnerabilities. A SCOTUS ruling against the tariffs could reshape trade dynamics and have ripple effects across global markets, including crypto markets that are increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic policy shifts.

For traders and market observers, this illustrates the power of prediction markets in pricing tail risks. When institutional and retail participants bet real money on outcomes, their aggregated predictions often reflect genuine uncertainty—and in this case, they're betting overwhelmingly that the courts may intervene.