Founder Securities: Market Priced in No Rate Cut by the Fed in January, Possible Rate Cut as Early as June

On January 10, according to Jinshi Data, Founder Securities' research report states that the December non-farm payroll data was mixed, with the US labor market generally showing a mild downward trend, but with marginal improvement in the unemployment rate, providing the Fed with more reasons to hold off in January.
Combined with the potential declaration by the Supreme Court that IEEPA tariffs are unconstitutional, which may be short-term bullish for US stocks and the dollar, and bearish for US bonds: data such as new employment, job vacancy rate, and wage growth indicate that the US labor market in December remains relatively weak, but the marginal decline in the unemployment rate is one of the few bright spots.
From the perspective of interest rate futures and US Treasury movements, market pricing after the data release indicates no rate cut by the Fed in January, with the earliest possible rate cut in June. Meanwhile, as the Supreme Court may recently declare IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, this suggests a marginal improvement in economic expectations and weakening inflation pressures, but also an increase in fiscal deficits. Under the combination of the Fed being reluctant to cut rates and tariffs cooling down, short-term US bonds face many adverse factors, with a high probability of trading at high levels. US stocks benefit from AI prosperity and reduced tariff disruptions, especially in sectors like consumer staples and industrials that are more elastic to tariff impacts.