Keep an eye on this set of data.

Yesterday, the US Bitcoin spot ETF experienced quite a stir—net outflows of $250 million. Among them, a major fund led the way, withdrawing $252 million in a single day. Fidelity saw a slight inflow of $7.9 million, while another institution also withdrew $5.9 million. As soon as this lineup appeared, market sentiment immediately sounded the alarm.

On the surface, this is indeed a bearish signal. Institutional fund withdrawals tend to amplify downward market expectations, especially when leading funds act, which can trigger a chain reaction. The market faces considerable pressure and may test previous support levels.

But there's an interesting point here. On-chain data tells a different story.

The Bitcoin balances on exchanges continue to decline, indicating that true long-term holders are accumulating against the trend. Even more interesting is that those whale addresses show little sign of large-scale selling; instead, they are slightly increasing their holdings. This suggests that knowledgeable players are not panicking—ETF outflows are mainly driven by short-term speculative panic, not long-term holders fleeing.

Looking at the ecosystem side, the recent popularity of inscriptions remains high, with on-chain Gas fees staying elevated, indicating that actual trading demand is still robust. This shows that the market's fundamental vitality is still intact.

Overall, while ETF outflows have created a bearish atmosphere, under the broader context of increasingly完善的监管框架, institutions have not completely exited the market. Platforms like Fidelity are still strategically positioning themselves against the trend, which reveals a common market law—when retail investors panic, institutions are often quietly accumulating.

In the short term, the probability of a sideways decline is higher, possibly dipping near $40,000 to complete a shakeout. But in the longer term, the current bull market pattern has not reversed. As long as on-chain data does not show signs of deterioration, hold onto your spot positions and don't get shaken off by short-term volatility.

Monitoring on-chain signals and waiting for opportunities to add positions is the simplest strategy.