2026-01-10 06:21:00

Recent data shows that although there are signs of weakness in the US employment sector, the unemployment rate has actually marginally improved, prompting the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's rate cut timetable. A rate cut in January seems unlikely, with most analyses pointing to the earliest possible move being in June.

There are also new developments regarding tariffs. The Supreme Court may rule that the IEEPA tariffs are illegal, which would mean improved economic expectations and a corresponding easing of inflation pressures. On the other hand, good news on this front is offset by expanding fiscal deficits, which dampen some of the positive effects.

Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve temporarily not rushing to loosen monetary policy and tariffs cooling down, short-term US bonds are under pressure. Running at high levels has become a high-probability event. In contrast, the stock market remains hot with AI enthusiasm still strong, and tariff disruptions are waning. These dual positives provide support for US stocks. Consumer staples and industrial sectors have been hit harder by tariffs, but these sectors also have greater rebound potential.

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GateUser-0717ab66

· 01-10 15:49

The Federal Reserve is playing its hand steadily, only moving in June? It still seems to be observing, and there's uncertainty about the deficit.

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OldLeekNewSickle

· 01-10 13:19

Alright, here are some comments for you: 1. Interest rate cuts in June? Then I need to revise my short positions from the past few months. By the way, this is a common delaying tactic used in Ponzi schemes. 2. Bonds are still high... the stock market is barely holding on. Truly a chaotic distribution of chips, only talking about fundamentals when it’s too late to cut. 3. Is the rebound of essential consumption elastic enough? Listen to this rhetoric—how many retail investors have entered and never exited because of this "elasticity"? 4. Tariffs receding, AI still hot. This coordinated hype is quite professional; the analyst’s rhetoric is indeed on point. 5. The widening fiscal deficit is directly masked by a simple "offset" statement. The details are full of risks, brother. 6. The Fed being slow to loosen monetary policy is the most dangerous; this is the real logic behind capital scheme operations. 7. Running at high levels as a probability event? The most moderate way I’ve heard to describe cutting retail investors is like this. 8. Double positive support for the US stock market sounds comfortable, but ask yourself if your entry point is right.

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defi_detective

· 01-10 06:51

With employment data so mixed up, who can understand how the unemployment rate can still improve? Did they cut interest rates only in June? Then I have to keep holding high-yield bonds. The Federal Reserve really knows how to stir things up. Tariff violation rulings? If that really passes, the deficit will have to be eased somehow, don’t just shoot yourself in the foot again. Consumption and industrial sectors have been hit really hard, but is there enough rebound elasticity? Sounds like self-comfort for those who are most deeply trapped, haha. AI is still the top trend; isn’t this the only thing that can currently be reliably held onto... The pressure on US bonds is so intense, bond fund days are indeed tough. It looks like the stock-bond tug-of-war will continue to sway; no matter what, it’s a hit. This tariff storyline is so complicated; if it weren’t for the charts, I wouldn’t understand who’s making money and who’s losing.

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NotFinancialAdviser

· 01-10 06:47

Wait, interest rate cuts are only happening in June? What should I do with my holdings these past few months? It's driving me crazy... The Fed really knows how to play. Employment is soft, but the unemployment rate keeps dropping, which is making my head spin. The news about tariff violations is indeed good, but the deficit is also making noise. It feels like a slow motion with one hand doing one thing and the other doing another... I accept that bonds are at high levels, but why is everyone still pouring money into tech stocks? Is it really the magic of AI? Are the rebound potentials of essential and industrial sectors large? That's an easy way to put it, but how many can truly hold on to their positions to the end...

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GmGnSleeper

· 01-10 06:47

Uh... wait a minute. The employment data is so contradictory. Can the unemployment rate still improve? That's a bit strange. Powell only took action in June, and during this period, bonds still had to suffer. Tariffs are really a half heaven, half hell situation, and the deficit is still burning money... But on the other hand, AI is still hot, and the US stock market can still hold up this wave.

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PerpetualLonger

· 01-10 06:44

Something's not right. Interest rate cuts only in June? I still have positions that need to bear interest payments, this is too outrageous... Wait, with AI support in the stock market, could this actually be an opportunity? Forget it, consumer staples and industrials have enough rebound potential. I'll go all-in and add a wave, hold steady and that's it.

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RugDocDetective

· 01-10 06:40

With such twisted employment data, can the unemployment rate still improve? I don't understand. The Federal Reserve only acted in June, and bonds really have been staying at the top. Winning the tariff lawsuit is pointless; the deficit is once again soaring recklessly. AI is still being hyped, but essential consumer goods are hit especially hard. How can there still be a rebound?

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FOMOSapien

· 01-10 06:27

Haha Powell, is this psychological warfare? First tease the market, then cut interest rates Bonds at high levels can't be sold off easily, while the US stock market has stabilized, and AI is still going crazy Tariff issues are unpredictable; even Supreme Court rulings are useless Employment data is inconsistent—good one moment, bad the next. I don't understand, everyone Essential consumer goods have fallen, but the rebound potential is so big? Then I better keep an eye on it

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MEVSandwichVictim

· 01-10 06:25

It's another standoff situation—let the deficit grow if it wants to. As long as tariffs cool down, we can take a breather. Wait, did they cut interest rates only in June? How am I supposed to get through these six months? Might as well go all in on AI. Anyway, the consumer and industrial sectors are just a pit right now.

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