I still remember the big crash of Bitcoin last November, and I can still feel the suffocating sensation from that time. In October, it surged to $126,000, looking unstoppable, but who knew it would turn around so suddenly—breaking below $100,000 and then falling all the way down to $89,000. In just over ten days, it lost nearly 30%. A bunch of my friends were heavily leveraged and got liquidated directly; their accounts were wiped out in a single day.

It wasn't until later that I realized the change came from the Federal Reserve—interest rates stopped falling, and Powell signaled they would stay high. Institutional investors reacted quickly, turning around and fleeing. The spot ETF kept falling for five consecutive weeks, and big players were frantically selling off. Plus, with trade tensions heating up, capital flooded into gold and the US dollar, completely exposing Bitcoin’s "safe haven" narrative. Once panic spread, it turned into a collective rush to exit, creating a vicious cycle of selling and falling prices.

Now the market has cooled off, and major analysis firms are saying we might enter a prolonged stalemate. My positions are also showing significant unrealized losses, but I have no intention of cutting losses. Honestly, this market is too exhausting—volume is low, new money isn’t coming in, and market sentiment is still stuck in that "fear" zone. My prediction is that in the first half of this year, Bitcoin will hover around $90,000, repeatedly testing that level. It’s likely forming a bottom, and there probably won’t be any explosive moves. Instead of obsessing over daily price swings, it’s better to hold mainstream coins for staking and interest, or do dollar-cost averaging to reduce the average entry price, and patiently wait for the next real opportunity.