The impact of Federal Reserve policies and non-farm payroll data on Bitcoin has always been significant. In December last year, non-farm payrolls increased by 256,000, far exceeding market expectations, which directly suppressed rate cut expectations. Bitcoin came under pressure and was ultimately supported at $89,300. In the short term, $92,300 and $94,500 constitute key resistance levels. However, if rate cut expectations re-emerge, improved liquidity will benefit Bitcoin's "digital gold" attribute; conversely, policy uncertainty will suppress risk appetite.

Venezuela's geopolitical situation once triggered risk aversion sentiment. U.S. military actions raised expectations of circulation supply contraction, causing Bitcoin and gold to rally together, even pushing towards $94,000; but once the news was confirmed, the market released risk, funds flowed out, and the previous gains retreated accordingly.

The funding situation for Bitcoin spot ETFs appears volatile. In the first two days of the year, net inflows exceeded $1 billion, but in the following three days, there were consecutive outflows of $1.128 billion. Institutional attitudes fluctuated, causing prices to repeatedly test between $90,000 and $94,000. Looking at a longer cycle, the tax-loss harvesting pressure at the end of 2024 has diminished. Entering 2025, institutional asset allocation needs for the new fiscal year are driving price recovery, rising from $87,000 to $94,000, an approximately 8% increase.

Regulation and industry ecology are also worth attention. Many countries are accelerating the implementation of crypto asset tax reporting frameworks, and the ongoing negotiations over the U.S. stablecoin bill continue; meanwhile, Morgan Stanley is developing wallet products, and Nasdaq is deepening crypto trading collaborations. These measures are gradually enhancing industry compliance and liquidity foundations.

**Trading rhythm division:**

In the short term (1-2 weeks), focus mainly on volatility, closely monitoring resistance above $94,500 and support below $88,000; after the non-farm payroll data release, market liquidity and sentiment are weak, so caution is needed against liquidation risks. In the medium term (1-3 months), the Federal Reserve policy direction and ETF capital flows are decisive variables. If rate cut expectations reappear, the bias is bullish; otherwise, expect continued oscillation. In the long term (6-12 months), the institutional-led pattern, tightening supply, and regulatory progress all point to a bullish trend, but risks from regulatory changes and macro black swan events should be avoided.

**Operational suggestions:**

In the short term, buy low and sell high within the range of $90,650-$92,300, set stop-loss below $88,000, and consider light positions if above $94,500. For medium-term accumulation, adopt a phased approach, retain 30% cash to handle uncertainties, and add positions when rate cut signals or ETF continuous net inflows occur. For risk control, keep leverage within 3x, limit individual positions to no more than 40%, and set stop-losses between 8%-10%.