2026-01-10 06:22:13

On Friday Asian market morning, spot gold is oscillating at a high level within the 4400-4450 range, with both bulls and bears holding their ground.

The logic supporting a rally in gold is actually quite clear. The non-farm payrolls data will be released tonight, with market expectations of 60,000 new jobs added, lower than the previous 64,000, which itself hints that the US economy may be cooling down. More importantly, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March remains high at 70%, giving long-term gold holders strong confidence. From a technical perspective, moving averages are gradually forming a support base for the long-term trend.

However, there is also significant pressure. The US dollar index recently hit a one-month high, directly suppressing gold. The MACD indicator is oscillating below the zero line, warning that short-term adjustments may continue for some time.

For traders, two key levels should be closely watched. If the price can hold above 4500, a new upward move could open up; but if it falls below 4380, technical selling pressure may follow. Fortunately, the ongoing US-China conflict and the Russia-Ukraine situation are two major geopolitical risks that are providing an invisible support level for gold.

An interesting signal is that the world's largest gold ETF's holdings have increased against the trend to 912 tons, indicating that institutional investors still remain optimistic about gold's medium- to long-term prospects. This at least shows that smart money has not completely exited the market.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

14 Likes

Reward
14
9
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

SchrodingerGas

· 01-11 01:23

This is a typical stalemate between bulls and bears. The US dollar has stubbornly resisted rate cut expectations, which is interesting. The 4500 level must be broken; otherwise, the technicals are just a false rally. The ETF increased holdings by 912 tons, which is noteworthy, indicating that institutions are still betting on geopolitical risk premiums. But I am more concerned about the volatility before non-farm payrolls... This standby state is the easiest to get trapped. Is smart money not out of the market? Uh, I feel like it's just waiting for the turning point of the game-theoretic equilibrium. Is gold this round a safe-haven asset or a translator for rate hike trades? On-chain evidence depends on how the US dollar index, this weather vane, moves. The MACD hovering below the zero line is just a time-wasting game, and the short-term adjustment space might be undervalued by the market.

View OriginalReply0

BackrowObserver

· 01-10 21:41

Smart money hasn't exited the market, so I have to follow suit. If 4500 can't be broken, I'll continue to observe.

View OriginalReply0

CryptoMom

· 01-10 06:52

Smart money is increasing their positions, and I'm still debating whether to cut my losses. Truly unbelievable.

View OriginalReply0

LiquidityLarry

· 01-10 06:51

Smart money doesn't withdraw, so I won't run. It feels great to secure 4500.

View OriginalReply0

OnchainHolmes

· 01-10 06:51

Smart money hasn't exited the market, so I will continue to hold firm at 4500. If it breaks, then we'll see. --- Non-farm payrolls are expected to explode tonight. Better to stay cautious this afternoon; gold is looking a bit risky. --- Is the dollar hitting a new high again? Impressive, gold is being squeezed tightly. --- An increase of 912 tons in holdings is the real game-changer signal; institutions are still adding positions. --- 4500 is the watershed. If it holds steady, it will take off; if it breaks, just admit defeat and get out. --- Geopolitical risks are a rescue, this move is indeed effective, and gold has strong confidence. --- MACD is sluggish below the zero line, short-term fluctuations are still expected. --- Non-farm payrolls are only expected to be 60,000? With the economy cooling down, gold should be the safe bet. --- A 70% chance of rate cuts, this is basically a reassurance for the bulls. --- Once 4380 is broken, technical signals will emerge and it could get awkward, so stay alert.

View OriginalReply0

ZenZKPlayer

· 01-10 06:51

The smart money hasn't exited the market, so I'm reassured. I'll continue to hold and relax.

View OriginalReply0

LayerZeroHero

· 01-10 06:50

Non-farm tonight is going to explode. If 4500 can't hold, I'll go all-in short directly.

View OriginalReply0

NestedFox

· 01-10 06:38

Once 4380 is broken, we have to run. The non-farm payroll suspense is too high this time, and we can't afford to gamble.