#比特币技术面分析 $23.6 billion options settlement. When faced with this number, I was reminded of the intense volatility scene in 2021. Back then, liquidity dried up, hedge positions collapsed, and within a few hours, people's judgments were shattered.

The current situation has similarities, but the details are different. Market makers unwinding hedges means the market will lose those artificially constructed supports and resistances. This vacuum in capital structure is often misread—some see it as a signal of a new wave of sharp declines, but more often, it’s just the disintegration of the old order and the rebuilding of a new one.

From another perspective of the data, the "price and capital influx gradient" indicator now shows a bullish divergence. I’ve seen similar signals in 2021-2022 and 2024, and each time they were accompanied by rebounds or even trend reversals. This doesn’t mean a guaranteed surge, but it suggests the bottom space might be limited. If BTC retraces to around $80,000–$82,000, that level is worth paying attention to.

History has taught me one thing: the most intense volatility often isn’t at the start of a trend, but during the final struggle as an old trend ends. Short-term disorder is often the prelude to medium-term order. The current market sentiment is still in a recovery phase, and from any angle, this time window shouldn’t be overly pessimistic.