2026-01-10 06:26:34

December Non-Farm Payrolls data just released, and the market's reaction is quite interesting — job growth is lukewarm, but the unemployment rate has marginally improved. This gives the Federal Reserve more reasons to hold off on rate hikes. Based on current market pricing, the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in January, and more room for rate cuts might not be seen until June.

However, there is a recent shift in expectations worth noting: if the Supreme Court truly declares tariffs unconstitutional, the economic outlook could marginally improve, and inflationary pressures would also weaken accordingly. This is a negative factor for short-term US Treasuries but a positive one for US stocks — on one hand, AI prosperity remains strong, and on the other hand, reduced tariff disruptions will boost market confidence. Overall, although the employment market is experiencing a mild slowdown, it instead provides the market with a breathing space.

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ColdWalletGuardian

· 12h ago

Unemployment rate improves but job growth remains weak. The Fed is really playing Tai Chi this time, cutting interest rates only in June? Then I’ll have to continue fighting the interest rate spread for the next few months. If the tariff constitutionality issue really becomes a problem, AI stocks will soar, but US bonds might cool off. Need to think about when to adjust the portfolio. A soft landing for employment sounds good, but I always feel like this "breathing space" is just an illusion. The Fed has truly left everyone hanging this time, no movement in January, waiting until June? That’s too harsh. How likely is a reversal on the tariffs? Still feeling uncertain. Can US stocks and AI hold up until June? I’m not confident.

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SigmaValidator

· 01-10 06:54

Unemployment rate improves but job growth stalls, is the Federal Reserve really just waiting for the right moment? If the tariffs are truly declared unconstitutional, U.S. stocks would definitely take a hit, but AI would still stay hot. Waiting for a rate cut in June? I have a feeling this is quite uncertain. Short-term U.S. debt might be hammered, but isn't that actually an opportunity for long positions? Interesting. The mild decline in the employment market sounds good, but in reality, it's like walking a tightrope. If the tariff policy is really overturned, market sentiment could improve significantly. The AI boom is still ongoing, so we should continue to be optimistic about tech stocks. Marginal improvement in the unemployment rate—this data interpretation still needs some pondering. The Federal Reserve won't move until June; where are the opportunities during this waiting period? Short-term U.S. debt is bearish, but the stock market might really be about to take off.

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ForkInTheRoad

· 01-10 06:49

If the tariffs really fall through, US stocks might take off. Wait, the non-farm payrolls are so ordinary, does the Federal Reserve really only move in June? Feels like I can't wait any longer. The unemployment rate improves but no one is buying it, it's funny. It's good that AI is still hot; at least there's something to speculate on. The decline in employment is also good news; at least there's no need to raise interest rates so urgently.

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SignatureLiquidator

· 01-10 06:48

Unemployment rate improves but employment remains lukewarm; these data are a bit embarrassing. Waiting until June for interest rate cuts, so how to get through these months? If tariffs are truly declared unconstitutional, US stocks might take off. AI sector is still holding up, don't worry. Short-term US debt doesn't look good, but US stocks are steady with positive momentum. Mild decline in employment is actually a buffer, smart.

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PumpingCroissant

· 01-10 06:47

Talking about interest rate cuts again, waiting until June... Now we really have to endure half a year. If tariffs are truly unconstitutional, the US stock market can take off, but US bonds will have to take the hit. Non-farm payroll data is so bad it’s almost an art form haha. Wait a minute, employment is still weakening, so isn’t the risk of a recession also brewing? How long can this AI rally last, is it real or fake? Interest rate cuts are nowhere in sight, holding onto assets is tough.

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SleepyArbCat

· 01-10 06:34

Nap time warning... Non-farm payrolls are causing trouble again. The Federal Reserve's stance seems to be waiting until June, since January is definitely out of the question. Wait, if the issue of tariffs being unconstitutional really happens, the US stock market will go wild. Can Bitcoin feel the vibe? Will gas fees drop? That's the real focus.

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