January is about to come to an end, but market volatility is intensifying—the price swings are widening significantly. Underlying this are two major events: the U.S. Supreme Court's tariff decision and upcoming employment data releases. Both pieces of information could quickly shift global risk appetite, causing risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies to face a "not-so-stable 7 days."

It sounds quite intense, but for Bitcoin, the current environment isn't actually bad—in fact, it might be a more solid start.

The key data point is this: Bitcoin's open interest (OI) over the past 30 days has fallen to its lowest level since 2022. In simple terms, the more open contracts pile up, the more leveraged bets on market direction there are; once the trend reverses, a chain reaction of liquidations can occur. In Q4 last year, Bitcoin's OI once surged to $94 billion, when market sentiment was extremely hot and fragile at the same time.

Now, the situation has completely changed. A large amount of leverage has been cleared out, and the crazy "everyone is all-in bullish" mentality has disappeared. Sentiment has noticeably cooled down. This actually indicates one thing: current prices are not driven by excessive optimism but are relatively more genuine.

Looking at interest rates now, the market's expectation is that the Federal Reserve has only a 13% chance of cutting rates in the next meeting, reflecting a rather cautious outlook. This is a far cry from the previous optimistic tone of "soon easing and continuous rate cuts." On the surface, this might seem unfavorable for risk assets, but from another perspective, this cautious expectation actually helps eliminate some bubble risks. The market is no longer buoyed by overly optimistic sentiment, which provides a stronger foundation for resilience.